Финансы: теория и практика / Finance: theory and Practice, 2024, том 28, № 4
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Том / Vol. 28, No. 4 ISSN 2587-5671 (Print) ISSN 2587-7089 (Online) DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671 ФИНАНСЫ: ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА Научно-практический рецензируемый журнал Издается с 1997 г. Предыдущее название — «Вестник Финансового университета» FINANCE: THEORY AND PRACTICE Scientific and practical peer-reviewed journal Published since 1997. Former title: “Bulletin of the Financial University” Свидетельство о регистрации: ПИ № ФС77-70021 от 31 мая 2017 г. Registration certificate: PI No. FS77-70021 of 31 May 2017 Учредитель: Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва, Россия Founder: Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia Периодичность издания — 6 номеров в год Publication frequency — 6 times a year Журнал ориентирован на научное обсуждение актуальных проблем в сфере финансовой экономики. The Journal is focused on scientific discussion of topical problems in the sphere of financial economy. Индексируется в базах данных: Scopus, Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI), CrossRef, DOAJ, Ebsco, Dimensions, EconLit, EconBiz, RePec, eLibrary.ru, Russian Index of Science Citation (RINTs), CyberLeninka и др. Indexed in databases: Scopus, Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI), CrossRef, DOAJ, Ebsco, Dimensions, EconLit, EconBiz, RePec, eLibrary.ru, Russian Index of Science Citation (RINTs), etc. Включен в первую категорию Перечня рецензируемых научных изданий ВАК (К1) по научным специальностям: 5.2.1. Экономическая теория, 5.2.4. Финансы (экономические науки). A journal included in the first category of the List of VAC’s peer-reviewed scientific publications (К1) on specialties: 5.2.1. Economic theory, 5.2.4. Finance (Economic science). Each article is assigned a digital object identifier (DOI). The printed version of the journal is distributed by subscription. Subscription to the Journal is carried out through the union catalogue “Pressa Rossii”, subscription index – 82140. Все статьи журнала публикуются с указанием цифрового идентификатора объекта (digital object identifier, DOI). Печатная версия журнала распространяется по подписке. Подписной индекс 82140 в объединенном каталоге «Пресса России». The electronic version of the journal in Russian and English is in open access on the website https://financetp.fa.ru/jour Электронная версия журнала на русском и английском языках находится в открытом доступе на сайте https://financetp.fa.ru/jour Журнал публикует материалы на условиях лицензии Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). The journal is published under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.
Главный редактор ФЕДОТОВА М.А., доктор экономических наук, профессор, заместитель научного руководителя Финансового университета, Москва, Россия заместитель Главного редактора АХАМЕР Г., PhD, Консультативный совет по глобальным исследованиям, Университет Граца, Институт экономической и социальной истории, Грац, Австрия; Агентство по охране окружающей среды Австрии, Вена, Австрия ЧЛЕНЫ РЕДАКЦИОННОЙ КОЛЛЕГИИ БОДРУНОВ С.Д., доктор экономических наук, профессор, РУЧКИНА Г.Ф., доктор юридических наук, декан член-корреспондент РАН, директор Института нового юридического факультета, профессор кафедры правового индустриального развития им. С. Ю. Витте, президент регулирования экономической деятельности, Финансовый Вольного экономического общества России, первый вицеуниверситет, Москва, Россия президент Санкт-Петербургского Союза промышленников РЯБОВ П.Е., доктор физико-математических наук, доцент, и предпринимателей, Санкт-Петербург, Россия профессор кафедры анализа данных и машинного БОСТАН И., PhD, профессор факультета экономических обучения факультета информационных технологий наук и государственного управления, Сучавский и анализа больших данных, Финансовый университет, университет им. Штефана чел Маре, Сучава, Румыния Москва, Россия ГОЛОВНИН М.Ю., доктор экономических наук, членСАНДОЯН Э.М., доктор экономических наук Российской корреспондент РАН, директор Института экономики РАН, Федерации и Республики Армения, профессор, директор Москва, Россия Института экономики и бизнеса, Российско-Армянский КРЮКОВ В.А., доктор экономических наук, профессор, университет, Ереван, Армения академик РАН, директор Института организации СИЛЛА Р.Е., PhD, почетный профессор экономики, Школа промышленного производства СО РАН, Новосибирск, Россия бизнеса Стерна, Нью-Йоркский университет, Нью-Йорк, ЛАФОРДЖИА Д., PhD, профессор Университета Саленто, США Италия СЛАВИН Б.Б., доктор экономических наук, профессор ЛИ СИН, PhD, профессор, директор Научнокафедры бизнес-информатики, Финансовый университет, исследовательского института евразийских исследований, Москва, Россия Национальный центр Шанхайской организации СТЕБЛЯНСКАЯ А.Н., PhD, доцент Школы экономики сотрудничества (ШОС), Шанхай, Китай и менеджмента, Харбинский инженерный университет, МУЛИНО А.В., PhD, профессор финансовой Харбин, Китай экономики и руководитель департамента финансов, ТИТЬЕ К., PhD, профессор Галле-Виттенбергского Бирмингемский университет, Бирмингем, университета им. Мартина Лютера, Германия Великобритания ХАН С.М., PhD, руководитель департамента экономики, ПФЛУГ Г., PhD, декан экономического факультета, Венский Блумбсбергский университет, Блумбсберг, США университет, Вена, Австрия ХУММЕЛЬ Д., PhD, профессор, Университет Потсдама, РЕНСТРОМ Т., PhD, профессор, Школа бизнеса, Германия Даремский университет, Дарем, Великобритания ЦЫГАЛОВ Ю.М., доктор экономических наук, профессор РУБЦОВ Б.Б., доктор экономических наук, профессор кафедры корпоративных финансов и корпоративного кафедры финансовых рынков и финансового инжиниринга управления факультета экономики и бизнеса, Финансовый финансового факультета, Финансовый университет, университет, Москва, Россия Москва, Россия Рукописи принимаются через электронную редакцию на сайте журнала https://financetp.fa.ru/jour Минимальный объем подаваемой рукописи — 4 тыс. слов; оптимальный — 6 тыс. слов. Редакция в обязательном порядке осуществляет экспертную оценку (рецензирование), научное, литературное и техническое редактирование всех материалов, публикуемых в журнале. Более подробно об условиях публикации см.: https://financetp.fa.ru/jour ФИНАНСЫ: ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА Т. 28, № 4’2024 financetp.fa.ru 2
Editor-in-Chief FEDOTOVA M.A., Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Deputy Scientific Advisor of the Financial University, Moscow, Russia DEPUTY Editor-in-Chief AHAMER G., PhD, Advisory Board Global Studies, Graz University, Institute for Economic and Social History, Graz, Austria; Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria Members of the Editorial Board BODRUNOV S.D., Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Corresponding RUCHKINA G.F., Dr. Sci. (Law), Financial University, Head Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Department for Regulation of Economic Activity, of the S. Yu. Witte Institute for New Industrial Development, Moscow, Russia President of the Free Economic Society of Russia, First ViceRYABOV P.E., Dr. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Assoc. Prof., Prof. President of the St. Petersburg Union of Industrialists and Department of Data Analysis and Machine Learning, Faculty Entrepreneurs, St. Petersburg, Russia of Information Technology and Big Data Analytics, Financial BOSTAN I., PhD, Professor Faculty of Economic Sciences University, Moscow, Russia and Public Administration, Stefan cel Mare University SANDOYAN E.M., Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Director of the of Suceava, Suceava, Romania Institute of Economics and Business, Russian-Armenian GOLOVNIN M.YU., Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Corresponding Member (Slavonic) University, Yerevan, Armenia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Institute SYLLA R.E., PhD, Professor Emeritus of Economics, Stern of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow School of Business, New York University, New York, USA KRYUKOV V.A., Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Academician of the Russian Slavin B. B., Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Department Academy of Sciences, Director of the Institute of Industrial of Business Informatics, Financial University, Engineering SB RAS, Novosibirsk Moscow, Russia LAFORGIA D., PhD, Professor, University of Salento, Italy Steblyanskaya A.N., PhD, Assoc. Prof., School LI XIN, PhD (Econ.), Professor, Director, Research Institute of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering for Eurasian Studies, National Center for SCO, Shanghai, China University, Harbin, China MULLINEUX A.W., PhD, Professor of Financial Economics TIETJE С., PhD, professor of the Martin-Luther-University and Head of Department of Finance, University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom KHAN S.M., PhD, Head of the Department of Economics, PFLUG G., PhD, Dean, Faculty of Economics, Vienna Bloomsburg University of Pennsylvania, Bloomsburg, USA) University, Vienna, Austria KHUMMEL’ D., Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, University RENSTROM T., PhD, Professor, Durham University Business of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany School, Durham, United Kingdom TSYGALOV YU.M., Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Corporate RUBTSOV B.B., Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Department of Financial Finance and Corporate Governance Department, Financial Markets and Banks, Financial University, Moscow, Russia University, Moscow Manuscripts are submitted via the electronic editorial board on the journal's website https://financetp.fa.ru/jour Minimum volume of a manuscript to be submitted 4 ths words; optimal — 6 ths words. The Editorial Board are assessment the peer-review manuscripts meticulously and executes scientific, literary and technical editing of the author’s original in the journal. More information on publishing terms is at: https://financetp.fa.ru/jour FINANCE: THEORY AND PRACTICE Vol. 28, No. 4’2024 financetp.fa.ru 3
СОДЕРЖАНИЕ ПОВЕДЕНЧЕСКАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА Choubey V., Joshi P. V. Does the Disposition Effect Justify the Options Traders’ Irrationality? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Gautam C., Wadhwa R., Raman T. V. Role of Personality Traits and Perceptive Factors in Determining Stock Market Investment Intentions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Arumsari Y. K., Surachman, Sumiati, Andarwati ФИНАНСЫ: ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА / FINANCE: THEORY AND PRACTICE Научно-практический журнал Том 28, № 4, 2024 Factors Affecting Financial Decision Making: The Women Lecturer’s Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ФИНАНСЫ Абдикеев Н. М., Степнов И. М., Ковальчук Ю. А. Рационирование как нормативный принцип финансирования экосистемного взаимодействия . . . 46 Omodero C. O. Effect of State Bonds on the Private Sector: Evidence from a Growing Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Климанов В. В., Михайлова А. А. Бюджетная политика крупнейших российских городов как инструмент ответа на глобальные вызовы . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 ИНВЕСТИЦИОННАЯ ПОЛИТИКА Зюкин Д. А., Болычева Е. А., Каширин С. В., Баранников А. А., Гончаренко О. Н. Развитие инвестиционного климата в Российской Федерации на фоне политических и экономических санкций . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Ebire K., Nwala M. N., Musa A. A. Effect of Inward Capital Flows on Financial Stability in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 НАЛОГОВАЯ ПОЛИТИКА Гончаренко Л. И. Налоговые преференции в пространственном развитии страны: терминологический аспект исследования . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 НОВЫЕ БАНКОВСКИЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ Покаместов И. Е., Никитин Н.А Главный редактор — Марина Алексеевна Федотова Заведующий Редакцией научных журналов — Виктор Александрович Шадрин Выпускающий редактор — Ирина Сергеевна Довгаль Переводчик — Виктория Ивановна Тимонина Библиограф — Василий Михайлович Алексеев Корректор — Светлана Феодосиевна Михайлова Верстальщик — Сергей Михайлович Ветров Современные технологии искусственного интеллекта как инструмент трансформации цепочек создания стоимости российских коммерческих банков . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 ФИНАНСОВЫЕ РИСКИ Gorelik V. A., Zolotova T. V. Method for Determining the Risk Profile of Investors Based on the Relationship of Two Stock Investing Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 Кузнецова В. В., Ларина О. И. Влияние небанковского финансового посредничества на банковские кризисы . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 УНИВЕРСИТЕТСКИЕ РЕЙТИНГИ И ФИНАНСЫ Адрес редакции: 125167, Москва, Ленинградский пр-т, 53, к. 5.4 Тел.: 8 (499) 553-10-71 (вн. 10-79) E-mail: isdovgal@fa.ru Сайт: financetp.fa.ru Приходько Л. В., Амерсланова А. Н., Каменева Е. А. Финансовое обеспечение университета и академический рейтинг: аспекты взаимосвязи . . . . 157 КОРПОРАТИВНЫЕ ФИНАНСЫ Наумов И. В., Бычкова А. А., Никулина Н. Л., Седельников В. М. Оценка перспектив банкротства отраслей промышленности Свердловской области . . . . . . . . . 181 ДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА Оформление подписки в редакции по тел.: 8 (499) 553-10-71 (вн. 10-80) e-mail: sfmihajlova@fa.ru С.Ф. Михайлова Щепотьев А. В. Размер экономически обоснованной процентной ставки по долговым обязательствам в ходе осуществления хозяйственной деятельности . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 ДРАЙВЕРЫ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТА Сухарев О. С., Ворончихина Е. Н. Макроструктурный анализ динамики двухсекторной экономики . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ ФИНАНСЫ Mabeba M. R. The Effect of Financialization on Economic Growth in Developing Countries with Large Financial Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 ФИНАНСОВЫЙ МЕНЕДЖМЕНТ Fahd M. A. Подписано в печать 06.08.2024 Формат 60 х 84 1/8. Объем 29,75 п. л. Заказ № 972. Отпечатано в отделе полиграфии Финансового университета (Москва, Ленинградский пр-т, д. 51) © Финансовый университет, Москва The Real Earnings Management Mediation: Relation Between Ceo Overconfidence and Subsequent Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 ФИНАНСЫ: ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА Т. 28, № 4’2024 financetp.fa.ru 4
Contents BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS FINANCE: THEORY Choubey V., Joshi P. V. AND PRACTICE Does the Disposition Effect Justify the Options Traders’ Irrationality?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Scientific and practical journal Gautam C., Wadhwa R., Raman T. V. Vol. 28, Nо. 4, 2024 Role of Personality Traits and Perceptive Factors in Determining Stock Market Investment Intentions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Editor-in-Chief — Arumsari Y. K., Surachman, Sumiati, Andarwati Marina A. Fedotova Factors Affecting Financial Decision Making: The Women Lecturer’s Perspective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 STATE FINANCES Head of Scientific Journals Abdikeev N. M., Stepnov I. М., Kovalchuc J. А. Editorial Department — Rationing as a Normative Principle of Ecosystem Interaction’s Financing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Victor A. Shadrin Omodero C. O. Managing Editor — Effect of State Bonds on the Private Sector: Evidence from a Growing Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Irina S. Dovgal Klimanov V. V., Mikhaylova А. А. Translator — Budget Policy of the Largest Russian Cities as a Tool to Respond to Global Challenges. . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Victoria I. Timonina INVESTMENT POLICY Bibliographer — Zyukin D. А., Bolycheva Е. А., Kashirin S. V., Barannikov А. А., Goncharenko О. N. Vasilii M. Alekseev Development of the Investment Climate in the Russian Federation against the Background of Political and Economic Sanctions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Proofreader — Ebire K., Nwala M. N., Musa A. A. Svetlana F. Mikhaylova Effect of Inward Capital Flows on Financial Stability in Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Design, make up — TAX POLICY Sergei M. Vetrov Goncharenko L. I. Tax Preferences in the Spatial Development of the Country: Terminological Aspect of the Study. . . . 108 Editorial address: NEW BANKING TECHNOLOGIES 53, Leningradsky prospekt, Pokamestov I. E., Nikitin N. A. office 5.4 Modern Artificial Intelligence Technologies as a Tool of Transformation of Value Chains of Russian Commercial Banks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Moscow, 125167 FINANCIAL RISKS tel.: +7 (499) 553-10-71 Gorelik V. A., Zolotova T. V. (internal 10-79) E-mail: isdovgal@fa.ru Method for Determining the Risk Profile of Investors Based on the Relationship of Two Stock Investing Problems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 Site: financetp.fa.ru Kuznetsova V. V., Larina O. I. Impact of Non-Bank Financial Intermediation on Banking Crises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 Subscription in editorial UNIVERSITY RANKINGS AND FINANCE office Prikhodko L. V., Amerslanova А. N., Kameneva Е. А. tel: +7 (499) 553-10-71 University Financial Support and Academic Ranking: Aspects of Interconnection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 (internal 10-80) CORPORATE FINANCE Naumov I. V., Bychkova A. A., Nikulina N. L., Sedelnikov V. M. e-mail: sfmihajlova@fa.ru Assessment of the Prospects for Bankruptcy of Industrial Sectors of the Sverdlovsk Region. . . . . . . . 181 Svetlana F. Mikhaylova MONETARY & CREDIT POLICY Signed for press on Shchepot’ev A.V. 06.08.2024 Economically Reasonable Interest Rate on Debt Obligation sin the Course of Economic Activity. . . . 193 DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Format 60 х 84 1/8. Sukharev O. S., Voronchikhina E. N. Size 29,75 printer sheets. Macrostructural Analysis of the Dynamics of the Two-Sector Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 Order № 972. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE Printed by Publishing House Mabeba M. R. of the Financial University (Moscow, 51, Leningradsky The Effect of Financialization on Economic Growth in Developing Countries with Large Financial Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT prospekt) Fahd M. A. © Financial University, Moscow The Real Earnings Management Mediation: Relation Between Ceo Overconfidence and Subsequent Performance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 FINANCE: THEORY AND PRACTICE Vol. 28, No. 4’2024 financetp.fa.ru 5
ПОВЕДЕНЧЕСКАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА / BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS ORIGINAL PAPER CC BY 4.0 © DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-4-6-17 JEL G4, G41 Does the Disposition Effect Justify the Options Traders’ Irrationality? V. Choubey, P.V. Joshi Symbiosis Institute of Operations Management, Nashik, Symbiosis International (Deemed) University, Pune, India ABSTRACT The options trader’s decisions are expected to be rational decisions but an element of irrationality is observed in decision making. The Disposition effect is the behavioral aspect of an investor which explains his irrational decision-making. The disposition effect is the tendency to keep losing positions too long and selling winning positions too early. The present research work studies the disposition effect in options trading. Options are derivatives of underlying assets which give the holder the right to exercise them at a given date and price. In this research work, elements of disposition effect namely, Herding (HE), Mental accounting (MA), Risk Aversion (RA) are studied along with Trade enablers (TE) and Cost consciousness (CC). The data was collected from 250 respondents’ trading options on the National Stock Exchange, India. The collected data was analyzed using Structured Equation Modeling (SEM). The results reflected that the disposition effect existed in decisionmaking by options traders. Trade Enabler consisting of Time decay and Open Interest, and Herding emerged as significant elements of disposition effect for options trading. Mental accounting, risk aversion, and cost-consciousness emerged as less significant elements affecting the disposition effect in options trading. Keywords: disposition effect; herding; mental accounting; risk aversion; behavioral finance For citation: Choubey V., Joshi P.V. Does the disposition effect justify the options traders’ irrationality? Finance: Theory and Practice. 2024;28(4):6-17. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-4-6-17 ОРИГИНАЛЬНАЯ СТАТЬЯ Оправдывает ли эффект диспозиции иррациональность опционных трейдеров? В. Чуби, П.В. Джоши Институт управления операциями «Симбиоз», Нашик, Международный университет «Симбиоз», Пуна, Индия АННОТАЦИЯ Ожидается, что решения инвесторов будут рациональными, однако в принятии решений наблюдается элемент иррациональности. Эффект диспозиции — это поведенческий нюанс инвестора, который объясняет его иррациональное принятие решений. Он заключается в тенденции слишком долго держать проигрышные позиции и неоправданно рано продавать выигрышные позиции. Изучаются эффект диспозиции в торговле опционами. Опционы — это производные от базовых активов, которые дают владельцу право реализовать их в определенную дату и по фиксированной цене. В данной исследовательской работе изучаются такие элементы эффекта диспозиции, как: стадность (С), ментальный учет (MA), неприятие риска (НР), катализатор торговли (КТ) и разумный подход к расходованию (ПР). Данные получены от 250 респондентов, торгующих опционами на Национальной фондовой бирже Индии. Для анализа собранных данных применен метод моделирования структурированных уравнений (SEM). Результаты показали, что эффект диспозиции существует в принятии решений трейдерами опционов. Катализатор торговли, состоящий из временного распада и открытого интереса, а также стадность оказались значимыми элементами эффекта диспозиции при торговле опционами. Ментальный учет, неприятие риска и разумный подход к расходованию оказались менее значимыми элементами, влияющими на эффект диспозиции в торговле опционами. Ключевые слова: эффект диспозиции; стадность; ментальный учет; неприятие риска; поведенческие финансы Для цитирования: Choubey V., Joshi P.V. Does the disposition effect justify the options traders’ irrationality? Финансы: теория и практика. 2024;28(4):6-17. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-4-6-17 © Choubey V., Joshi P.V., 2024 ФИНАНСЫ: ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА Т. 28, № 4’2024 financetp.fa.ru 6
V. Choubey, P.V. Joshi INTRODUCTION associated with decision-making. There are a lot of studies indicating the causes of the irrational behavior of individuals. The landmark work of [8] and [9] on the disposition effect is referred to in this research work to understand irrationality in behavior of option traders. The preliminary observations by researchers, followed by interviews with option traders, revealed that traders are holding losing positions longer and selling winning positions early. This poses the following questions in the minds of the researchers. RQ 1: Does the disposition effect justify (explain) the irrational behavior of option traders? RQ 2: which is a significant factor determining the disposition effect in options trading. Aim and Objectives The study aims to justify (Explain) the irrational behavior of option traders through the disposition effect. Though there have been studies on the behavior of capital market investors, this paper aims at understanding whether the disposition effect explains the irrational behavior of options traders. The study initially focuses on investigating existing literature and exploring factors affecting disposition effects, with special reference to options trading. Further, the research intends to identify significant factors of disposition effect in options trading. Derivatives and Disposition in Derivative Trading The global equity trading volumes have surged from 20 trillion US dollars in the first quarter of 2017 to 41.78 trillion US dollars by the 3rd quarter of 2021.1 Apart from equity investment, a surge in trading of derivatives (equity, commodity, currency, and index) is observed. An option or derivative is a contract that gives the owner the right to buy or sell the security but not an obligation to execute the contract at a future date based on the strike price (1). However, the increased awareness amongst retailer traders about derivative instruments results in the trading of derivatives (2). As per the report published by Statista 2 the number of options contracts traded worldwide in 2021 was 33.31 billion, as compared to 29.28 billion contracts in futures. As per the report of CNBC, in 2020, retail participants contributed to more than 25% of traded option contracts. The report further mentioned that the majority of them were making losses [3]. As per the reports by SEBI,3 89% of Future and Option traders made losses. Derivatives contracts are different from equity contracts in that they have special attributes such as expiry, premium, lot size, time-decay, high risk, high reward, etc. These attributes complicate the decision-making of the traders and involve them psychologically. The study of decision-making by investors in the capital market was guided by classical theories. These theories tried to provide a rationale for the decisions made by the investors [4]. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is proposed by [5] based on the Expected Utility Theory, which is widely accepted. These traditional theories are challenged by many researchers, given events like the dot-com crash, subprime crisis, Brexit, and the recent emergence of the Corona Virus pandemic [6]. Theories of behavioral finance are adopted to explain irrational behavior. These basic theories of behavioral finance are based on the concept of “bounded rationality” [7]. It is related to “limitations” 1 Value of global equity trading worldwide from 1st quarter 2017 to 4th quarter 2021. URL: https://www.statista.com/ statistics/242745/volume-of-global-equity-trading/ (accessed on 01.03.2022). 2 Number of futures and options contracts traded worldwide from 2013 to 2022. URL: https://www.statista.com/ statistics/377025/global-futures-and-options-volume/ (accessed on 01.04.2022). Specific Contribution of Research Work The theory of Disposition effect was put forth by [8, 9]. Its applications were mainly identified by several authors. The study of DE in case of IPOs [10] and taxation [11] is observed. Also, studies of DE in the context of demographics are done [10, 11]. This paper studies the applicability of the disposition effect on options traders’ behavior, which is lacking in the existing literature. Also, several studies were conducted with respect to individual factors of disposition effect, namely Mental Accounting [12], Herding [13], Risk Aversion. However, no work was observed in above studies to identify the significant factors affecting the Disposition effect in options trading. Further, it was noticed after the initial interaction with the option traders that cost and time value play a vital role in decision making in options trading and trigger the disposition effect. This led to further exploration of the literature, and two factors specific to option trading were proposed, namely Cost Consciousness and Trade Enablers. THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT 3 Analysis of Profit and Loss of Individual Traders dealing in Equity F&O Segment. URL: https://www.sebi.gov.in/reportsand-statistics/research/jan-2023/study-analysis-of-profitand-loss-of-individual-traders-dealing-in-equity-fandosegment_67525.html (accessed on 30.01.2023). The pioneering work in understanding the complexity of options was done by [14] based on five factors, FINANCE: THEORY AND PRACTICE Vol. 28, No. 4’2024 financetp.fa.ru 7
ПОВЕДЕНЧЕСКАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА / BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS namely the strike price of the underlying asset, the current premium price of the option, the maturity date of the option, the risk-free rate in the country, and the volatility of the mark. Despite having relevant information, the majority of retailers are making losses, and this signifies the behavioral aspect of options trading decisions. The present work focuses on Disposition effect. discussing the DE, also considered MA when it was mentioned that the decision-makers do not consider the whole portfolio but individual securities. [24] observed that investors are risk-averse to individual stock losses but do not take into consideration portfolio losses, stressing the presence of MA. The above literature indicates the influence of MA on the DE for various instruments. Based on it, the following hypothesis is proposed to study the relation between MA and DE for options trading: H2 — MA positively affects Disposition Effect. Disposition Effect (DE) The disposition effect is an integral part of behavioral finance. It supports explaining the irrational behavior of decision-makers where classical theories have limitations [8, 15]. Traces of DE were observed in the self-justification theory proposed by [16], which explains investors’ behavior when they commit mistakes. As a counteraction, the individual tends to invest more resources to rectify the mistakes, attracting additional financial commitments that may lead to financial distress. The literature related to DE was further advanced by contribution of [9]. They criticized the expected utility theory and the prospect theory suggested by them. Similarly, [17] observed that the risk profile is situational. An investor may take a risk in some situations and avoid others. Further inspection of the prospect theory was done by [8]. They concluded that the DE works in real decision-making and can be attributed to mental accounting, loss aversion, avoiding regret, seeking pride, and self-control. The major factors creating DE are discussed further. Herding It is irrationally copying the decisions of other investors. The negative news causes more fluctuations in comparison to positive news [18]. It may be attributed to blindly following the advice of experts [19] or to fashion and fads [20]. Herding is observed very well in a social media environment called social trading [21]. This environment provides information, transparency, and constant reciprocal scrutiny by participants but at the same time drives them in direction. The study by [22] also explains the fear of missing out on patterns in trading, which causes herding. The researcher proposes the following: H1 — Herding positively affects the Disposition Effect. Mental Accounting MA explains that an individual or household decision-maker decides by creating separate considerations called accounts. In the case of financial investments, each security is considered a separate account, and the decisions are not taken based on the whole portfolio altogether [12]. Along the same lines [23], Trade Enablers Trade enablers consist of time-decay (expiration) and open-interest. The importance of the first component of trade enabler, i. e. expiration has been observed by many researchers. The American option value decomposes as it approaches its expiration date [25]. Traders choose not to stay invested in a contract that they do not believe has any chance of becoming profitable. Different observations are made by researchers regarding expiry options. The expiry date is related to return, volatility, and volume in derivatives and their underlying assets [26]. The DE (keeping losers and selling winners) is affected by the above three. It was found that the maturity effect influences the traded volumes but doesn’t make the prices volatile [27]. Though volatility remains the same on the expiration day, [28] found that on the expiration day, trading volume fluctuates but prices are not affected. In contrast to this study, it is observed that trading activities are normal on expiry [29]. On the basis of the above, we infer that as the expiry date of options approaches, the probability of price fluctuation reduces, hence the option traders with profitable positions exit from the trade and the option traders with loss making positions continue to hold their positions in expectation of reversal. The second component of the trade enabler, i. e., open interest, is related to the number of un-winded contracts. In the work of [30], the importance of open-interest in predicting is highlighted. They found that increase in put-options open-interest is followed by poor return on underlying. Similarly, an increase in call open-interest predicts good performance by underlying. The options markets show unusual activities in form of open-interest before any significant corporate event [31]. Thus, open-interest can be used as an indicator for predicting the behavior of the market as studied by [32] in the Indian and US markets. The importance of non-price variables, namely open-interest and trading volume, can be seen in the research work of [32]. The common observation was that open-interest predicts the movement of unФИНАНСЫ: ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА Т. 28, № 4’2024 financetp.fa.ru 8
V. Choubey, P.V. Joshi pothesis is proposed for studying the decision-makers in options trading: H4 — Risk Aversion positively affects Disposition Effect. derlying. The authors infer that open-interest is an indication of holding positions (i. e., DE) and intend to hypothesize that open interest increases DE. These two factors — expiry of options and changes in openinterest play an important role in holding a contract. These two factors combined are termed “Trade Enablers” by researchers. To capture the trading behavior related to expiry and open-interest and its impact on disposition, the following hypothesis is framed: H3 — Trade Enablers positively affect the Disposition Effect. Risk Aversion Risk Aversion and DE are studied by many researchers. Investors’ decisions are based on their economic outlook and expected utility from the investment, and they always look for value in the opportunity [8]. The expected returns vary proportionately with the risk involved in the investment. RA is a major cause of the DE and it is because of this RA that decisionmakers tend to sell their winning positions too soon. However, the term asymmetric RA is used to indicate that the decision-maker is risk-averse only in a winning position but becomes a risk-taker when in a loss [33]. The paper researched the impact of only RA on the DE on the investors and concluded that the RA alone is insignificant in explaining the DE in the case of winners but is significant in the case of losing investments [34]. The previous research works reflect a relationship between RA and DE. The following hyCost-Consciousness The term cost-consciousness though is a widely used term in scientific literature, but the concept lacks clarity and is vague [35]. Cost-consciousness is looked at from different points of view, like cost reduction, operations and economic efficiency [36]. This paper intends to use the term from the capital market point of view. In this research work, the term cost consciousness is used to represent two vital and concerning elements of option trading, i. e. the transaction costs and taxes involved. The transaction cost is a major element determining efficiency and ultimately influences the decisions of stock market traders [37]. In an experiment [38], it was found that of the major factors affecting the DE, transaction cost was found to be a significant factor. On similar lines, observations were made by [39]. It is found that the DE is sensitive to taxes and the decisions of traders are affected by the rate of taxes [40]. In this context [41], observed the impact of security transaction taxes and inferred that it has an adverse impact on stock market participants and reduces profitability. Studies by [42] reveal that to reduce tax liabilities, traders wind up their winning positions as the year approaches. This indicates that decisions made are affected by taxes. The research [43] studied Fig. 1. Proposed Model for DE in Options Trading Source: Compiled by authors. FINANCE: THEORY AND PRACTICE Vol. 28, No. 4’2024 financetp.fa.ru 9
ПОВЕДЕНЧЕСКАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА / BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS items was judged by the expert panel of 10 judges from Industry and Academia. Items having 75% consensuses were used for data collection. Out of 22 items, seventeen were validated by a panel of judges. Items DE4 and DE 5, TE2 & TE3, CC2 were dropped based on the judges’ opinion. The final instrument was presented to respondents and responses were collected on a five-point Likert scale with Strongly Agree (5), Agree (4), Neutral (3), Disagree (2), and Strongly Disagree (1). Sample and Data Collection The data was collected from individual options traders on the National Stock Exchange, India. Responses were collected from 315 option traders using the judgment sampling method. A self-administered questionnaire was used for this purpose. The response rate was 79% (approx.), and 250 valid and complete responses were used for further analysis. The respondents’ profile is given in the Table 2. RESULTS the impact of taxation on the trading behavior of private investors. They concluded that taxes have a major impact on the decision-making of traders. Discontinuity of taxes increases the trading volume of buying and selling of positions in case of gains as well as losses. Hence, the researchers are interested in understanding the existence of the following relationship: H5 — Cost-consciousness positively affects the Disposition Effect. Looking at the literature and research work available, applications of DE have been studied by many authors, like in taxation [10], IPO [41], or demographics [11]. Also, several studies were conducted with respect to individual factors of disposition effect namely Mental Accounting [12]; Herding [18]. Risk Aversion [33]. However, no work was observed in the above studies to identify the significant factors affecting the Disposition effect in options trading. Further, it was noticed after the initial interaction with the option traders that cost and time value play a vital role in decision making in options trading and trigger disposition effect. This led to further exploration of literature and two factors specific to option trading were proposed, namely Cost Consciousness and Trade Enablers. Based on the detailed literature review, the model is proposed as in Fig. 1. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Common Method Bias and Normality Common method bias was observed using Harman’s single-factor test. The maximum variance for a single factor was 43.5%. These rules out biasedness in the given data. The data was found in the normal range of +/–2 for skewness and kurtosis. This ensures the normality of the data [48]. Instrument Development The disposition effect is studied based on five factors: Herding, MA, Trade Enablers, Risk Aversion, and Cost-Consciousness. Table 1 depicts the sources of items for various constructs (factors). These items from various sources were adapted for the current study. The items, related to Trade Enablers and Cost-Consciousness, were developed by researchers on suggestions of experts. The validity of an instrument is the appropriateness by which it measures what is required to measure [47]. The Content Validity of these Validity Convergent validity: Composite Reliability (CR), factor loadings, and Average Variance Extracted (AVE) were used for establishing convergent validity. An acceptable range for CR above 0.7 and AVE above 0.5 for convergent validity [49]. Factor loading above 0.5 is acceptable. Cronbach Alpha is above 0.60 for all the constructs and is within an acceptable range [49]. The findings are presented in Table 3. Table 1 Instrument Development Sources Construct (factors) Source Disposition Effect (DE1, DE2, DE3, DE4, DE5) [44] Herding (HE1, HE2, HE3) [45] MA (MA1, MA2, MA3) [45, 46] Risk Aversion (RA1, RA2, RA3, RA4) [46] Trade Enablers (TE1, TE2, TE3, TE4) Suggested by experts Cost-Consciousness (CC1, CC2, CC3) Suggested by experts Source: Compiled by authors. ФИНАНСЫ: ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА Т. 28, № 4’2024 financetp.fa.ru 10