The relationship between climatic environmental factors and the spread of coronavirus infection in the world (according to the Global Environmental Monitoring System)

S C I E N T I F I C I D E A


V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences


Center for Strategic Planning and Management of Biomedical Health Risks

Academy of Postgraduate Education of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency


Russian Academy of Sciences


VIKTOR V. GLEBOV ANASTASIA G. TITOVA BOGDAN I. LAVER


THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS INFECTION IN THE WORLD (ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING SYSTEM)


MONOGRAPH







Moscow

INFRA-M


2023

УДК 616-036.21(075.4)
ББК 51.9
     Г53

   ФЗ     Издание не подлежит маркировке  
№ 436-ФЗ в соответствии с п. 1. ч. 2 ст. 1

R e v i e w e r s:
Alexander E. Severin, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Professor, Professor of the Department of Normal Physiology of the Faculty of Medicine, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow;
Dmitry O. Meshkov, Head of the Public Health Management Laboratory, MD, Chief Researcher at the V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences


      Glebov V.V.

Г53

      The relationship between climatic environmental factors and the spread of coronavirus infection in the world (according to the Global Environmental Monitoring System) : monograph / V.V. Glebov, A.G. Titova, B.I. Laver. — Moscow : INFRA-M, 2023. — 143 p. — (Scientific Idea).

ISBN 978-5-16-112194-8 (online)

      The monograph presents the results of data analysis of the Global Environmental Monitoring System. The work assessed the influence of complex environmental factors that had an impact on the spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the world during the epidemic. The study has studied in sufficient detail the impact of climatic (temperature, humidity, wind speed) and anthropogenic factors (air pollutants) of the environment on the spread of COVID-19 in the world.
      An important aspect in the study of this issue is the use of methodological tools — correlation analysis, analysis of color scales, analysis of control points, which allow you to visualize the data array and visually show the spread of the pandemic.
      The presented work may be of interest to specialists in the field of public health, employees of the Ministry of Health, teachers and students of ecological and biological specialties.

УДК 616-036.21(075.4)
ББК 51.9






ISBN 978-5-16-112194-8 (online)

                   © Glebov V.V., Titova A.G., Laver B.I., 2023

CONTENTS



CHAPTER 1.   Literature review. STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF ECOLOGICAL AND
CLIMATIC FACTORS ON THE SPREAD OF THE PANDEMIC OF COVID-19 IN THE
WORLD ...............................................................................6
1.1. The influence of climatic factors on the spread of COVID-19 in the world .......9
1.1.1. The influence of air temperature on the spread of COVID-19 in the world.......9
1.1.2. The influence of air humidity on the spread of COVID-19 in the world ........16
1.1.3. The influence of wind speed on the spread of COVID-19 in the world ..........21
1.2. The impact of anthropogenic environmental factors on the development and spread
ofthe COVID-19 pandemic in the world................................................22
1.2.1. The impact of air pollutants on the spread of COVID-19 in the world .........22
1.2.2. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on changes in the levels of pollutants in the
air.................................................................................26
1.3. Methodological approaches for the study of the COVID-19 pandemic in the
world...............................................................................29
CHAPTER 2.  THE PROGRAM OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH.......................................34
2.1. Organization and stages of the study ..........................................34
2.2. Object of research ............................................................34
2.3. Research methods ..............................................................37
2.3.1. Correlation analysis ........................................................37
2.3.2. Analysis of color scales ....................................................38
CHAPTER 3.   Empirical research. COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATIC FACTORS ON THE SPREAD OF THE SARS-COV-
2 PANDEMIC .........................................................................40
3.1. Correlation analysis of environmental and climatic factors of the environment .40
 3.2.  Analysis of color scales of environmental and climatic factors of the environment ........................................................................51
3.3. Analysis of control points of ecological and climatic factors of the environment .53
3.3. The data obtained and their discussion ........................................60
RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................67
CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................68
REFERENCES .........................................................................69
APPENDIX ...........................................................................84
Appendix 1  85
Appendix 2  93
Appendix 3  101
Appendix 4  109
Appendix 5  118
Appendix 6  125

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INTRODUCTION


     This monograph is devoted to the empirical presentation and discussion of methodological, theoretical and methodological issues related to the influence of a complex of environmental factors on the dynamics of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic on a global scale [Ragozin O.N., Radysh I.V., Shalamova, E.Yu., et.al ., 2021]. The main paradigm in the scientific community, infectious diseases are one of the prevailing factors in the structure of the causes of human mortality, sometimes leading to the extinction of entire peoples, depopulation of countries, the decline of states [Severin A.E., Sushkova L.T., Batotsyrenova T.E., 2021].
     However, the COVID-19 pandemic that suddenly broke out today has brought great socio-economic, mental and human losses to Humanity, At the same time, the scientific community still has many questions about the emergence and mechanisms of transmission of this disease in the human population, which is one of the most relevant areas in applied interdisciplinary directions [Meshkov D.O., Lobanov A.V., Cherkasov S.N., et.al ., 2022].
     One of the important vectors of understanding some of the mechanisms of the development of covid's disease was the assessment of the features of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the conditions of global climate change on the planet, which is associated with both natural cycles and active human economic activity. Often such activities are associated with large-scale pollution of atmospheric air, soil and water [Glebov V.V., Erofeeva V.V., Yablochnikov S.L., et.al ., 2021; Glebov V.V., Plushikov V.G., 2021].
     There are also data from a number of studies that show that atmospheric air pollution increases the rapid spread of the viral epidemic over large areas (due to wind), has a depressive effect on the overall immunity of the human body and the work of the individual's cardiorespiratory systems (Bontempi E., 2020; P. Giani, S. Castruccio, A. Anav, et.al ., 2020; Domingo J.L., Marques M., Rovira J., 2020; C. Copat, A. Cristaldi, M. Fiore, et.al ., 2020)
     At the same time, it should also be noted that in Russia, studies to assess the relationship between the quality of the habitat and the levels of morbidity and mortality

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from COVID-19 are at an early stage and require the involvement of specialists from different fields of knowledge. This will make it possible to form a multifactorial model of individual and population human health [Glebov V.V., Shevtsov V.V., Efremova D.N., 2023].
     Therefore, the importance of conducting and analyzing quantitative estimates of the incidence of COVID-19 with the parameters of the human population's habitat is associated with a number of reasons. Firstly, such studies will make it possible to create a database that will be used for analytical work and will be evidence-based for the world community.
     Secondly, it would strengthen the positions of environmentalists and human rights defenders in relation to polluting enterprises about the importance of introducing environmentally friendly technologies into production to minimize emissions into the environment [Erofeeva V.V., Glebov V.V., Yablochnikov S.L., 2020].
     Thirdly, it is also significant for businessmen and heads of state-owned enterprises themselves, because the incidence of covid has become the main cause of mass illness of workers and frequent stoppage of production [Meshkov D.O., Bezmelnitsyna L.Yu., Cherkasov S.N., et.al ., 2020].
     Thus, the identification of interdependencies between environmental factors and the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic makes it possible to clearly determine the territorial priorities of government and business for carrying out medical and preventive measures at the current moment and in the future [Laver B.I., Glebov V.V., Isaev K.V., et.al ., 2023].
     In this regard, the purpose of this study was to study and obtain a quantitative assessment of the impact of ecological, climatic and anthropogenic factors on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among the population of different countries living in different environmental conditions.

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                CHAPTER 1. Literature review. STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF ECOLOGICAL AND CLIMATIC FACTORS ON THE SPREAD OF THE PANDEMIC OF COVID-19 IN THE WORLD




     The problem of studying complex environmental factors affecting the spread of the pandemic on the planet has a permanent significance throughout the entire period of human existence.
     Over the past decades, man has managed to create an environmental monitoring system on the planet, which successfully helps to perform many important tasks: to monitor environmental changes associated with natural and anthropogenic impacts, as well as the dynamics of the spread of pandemics in the world [Sizikova T.E., Lebedev V.N., Borisevich S.V., 2021].
     The term "monitoring" was first introduced into scientific circulation before the UN Stockholm Conference on the Environment in 1972. There are many interpretations of the phenomenon of "monitoring. Under the term monitoring (from lat. monitor - the one who reminds, warns) it was decided to understand the system of continuous monitoring, measurement and assessment of the state of the environment. In this system, environmental monitoring is important, which conducts "systematic monitoring of the state of the environment ... monitoring of such changes and carrying out environmental management measures" [Snytko V. A., Sobisevich A., 2017].
     At the same conference, various approaches were proposed to create a Global Environmental Monitoring System. Figure 1.1. shows the main elements of this monitoring system.

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Figure 1.1. Main elements of the Global Environmental Monitoring System

    An important role in the creation of the Global Environmental Monitoring System was played by the Soviet Union, where the head of the Hydrometeorological Service of the USSR Yu. A. Israel took an active part, who published the article "Global Observing System. Forecast and assessment of environmental changes. Fundamentals of monitoring". In this publication, the scientist proposed to understand environmental monitoring as "an observation system that allows us to identify changes in the state of the biosphere under the influence of human activity" [Israel Yu. A., 1984].
    An important aspect in the Global Environmental Monitoring System is environmental monitoring, which is based on different principles (spatial, tracking object, natural components, organizational).
    According to the spatial principle. According to the spatial principle, there are: point, local, regional, national and global monitoring. The latter involves ecological studies of the interaction of man and nature on the scale of the entire biosphere. National, as a rule, implies the organization of monitoring within one state. It is quite difficult to unambiguously determine the scale of regional monitoring. In our country, in the regulatory documents of ecomonitoring, the subject of the Russian Federation is considered as a region. There are also larger-area monitoring of water areas and territories at the interstate level (Baltic Sea, North Sea, Alps, etc.) and intra-state (Baikal, Ural, etc.). Local monitoring includes the study of the space of a single source 7

under the influence of a set of enterprises of an industrial zone, municipality (city, district).
    By tracking object: background (basic), impact, thematic, territorial, aquatic.
    Within the framework of background monitoring, research is being conducted aimed at identifying natural patterns of changes in natural components and complexes. Impact monitoring refers to the observation, assessment and forecast of the state of the natural environment in areas where dangerous and potentially dangerous (NPP) sources of anthropogenic impact are located. Thematic monitoring - monitoring of natural components, objects, for example, forest or specially protected natural areas. To a large extent, the network of observations on land and in the aquatic environment differs in terms of phenomena and methods of study.
    According to natural components. According to natural components, geological, atmospheric, hydrological, geophysical, soil, forest, biological, geobotanical, zoological are distinguished. Atmospheric air monitoring is a system of observations of the state of atmospheric air, its pollution and natural phenomena occurring in it, as well as assessment and forecast of the state of atmospheric air, its pollution. Similarly, other component monitoring can be defined.
    According to organizational features. Observations are distinguished by international, state, local, public and departmental monitoring. International includes forecast assessment systems that are organized by intergovernmental organizations of a global nature, for example, the UN, UNESCO, UNEP, etc. Monitoring can be carried out by state and municipal services.
    Obtaining comprehensive epidemic information on specific global infectious diseases is crucial for travel health. However, different infectious disease information websites may have different purposes, which may lead to misunderstanding on the part of travelers and medical personnel when making precise decisions on epidemic control and management.
    Recently, an attempt has been made in China to develop a Global Information System for Monitoring the Epidemic of Infectious Diseases (GIDEIMS), which could provide complete and timely information about the global epidemic situation in the world [Dayong Gu, Jianan He, Jie Sun, et.al ., 2021].

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    Below we present a scientific review of the impact of climatic factors on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in the world.




                1.1. The influence of climatic factors on the spread of COVID-19 in the world




    Much about the dynamics of transmission of the COVID-19 pathogen is still unknown. However, there is evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is a shell virus with positive single-stranded RNA (+ OCRnA) [Shchelkanov M.Yu., Popova A.Yu., Dedkov V.G., 2020].
    It has been confirmed that the frequency of infections caused by enveloped viruses, such as: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza virus and human metapneumovirus (hMPV), is higher at lower ambient temperatures [To T., Zhang K., Maguire B. et.al., 2020; Wu Y., Jing W., Liu J., et.al., 2020; Xie J., Zhu Y., 2020]. In most cases, the peak incidence of RSV and influenza virus in Russia is limited to the cold winter months, while cases of hMPV are observed throughout the year, and the peak occurs at the end of winter and spring. Based on the structural, biological and biochemical similarity of these "cold season" viruses and SARS-CoV-2, it can be assumed that the incidence of COVID-19 in the population will vary depending on climatic conditions [Azuma K., Kagi N., Kim H., et.al., 2020].
    Despite the interrelation of some data obtained during the same study and the importance of the cumulative effect of the environment on the morbidity of the population, this review will consider individual factors influencing the spread of coronavirus infection in the human population, in particular: air temperature and humidity, wind speed and the effect of pollutants [Bashir M. F., Bilal B. M., Komal B., 2020].




                1.1.1. The influence of air temperature on the spread of COVID-19 in the world




      Studies have been conducted in many countries, as a result of which it has been confirmed that high air temperature reduces the viability and transmission of COVID-19, while low air temperature prolongs the viability of the coronavirus.


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      In the work of Sarkodie S.A., Owusu P.A. (2020), based on monitoring data on the daily incidence of the population obtained from 20 countries (USA, Spain, Italy, France, Great Britain, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Iran, China, Brazil, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands, India, Switzerland, Peru, Portugal, Ecuador and Saudi Arabia) and the peculiarities of climatic conditions in these regions, a multiparametric assessment method was formed based on the relationship between changes in meteorological environmental factors and the spread of COVID-19 among the population. In the course of the work, the analysis of research data was carried out, in which a preliminary assessment of climate data was given and with the help of descriptive statistics tools, for example, the data normalization method was applied to the initial indicators [Date, C. J., 1999]. The study confirmed the presence of a causal relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of COVID-19 in the population. Also in this work, separate studies were conducted to study the effect of temperature on confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the population. As a result, it was found that high temperature contributes to a decrease in the incidence of people, while low temperature contributes to an increase in the number of confirmed cases of infection of the COVID-19 population [Huang Z., Huang J., Gu Q., et.al., 2020].
      In the studies of Wu Y., Jing W., Liu J., et.al., (2020) the indicators of 166 countries were analyzed, where a generalized linear model was used to assess the effect of temperature on morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 as of March 27, 2020. It was noted that temperature changes were associated with daily new cases of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Thus, an increase in temperature by 1°C was associated with a decrease in daily new cases of morbidity by 3.08% (95% CI: 1.53% - 4.63%) and a decrease in mortality by 1.19% (95% CI: 0.44% - 1.95%) [Ma Y., Zhao Y., Liu J., et.al., 2020].
      Interesting data were obtained in the study of Meo S.A., Abukhalaf A.A., Alomar A.A., et.al. (2020) where the epidemiological situation in 20 countries was studied: 10 with high air temperature and 10 with low air temperature. The choice of countries was made on the basis of such an indicator as the average daily temperature. The study period was from December 29, 2019 to May 12, 2020 inclusive.

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      The study showed that in 10 countries with high air temperature (India, Algeria, Pakistan, Ghana, Mexico, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates), where the average temperature was 26.31°C ± 1.51, the average daily incidence of the population was 407.12±24.33 cases, the total incidence was 9094.34±708.29, and the total mortality was 452.84±43.30 cases [Nikhilesh Ladha, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Jaykaran Charan, et.al ., 2020].
      In 10 countries with low air temperature (Austria, Kazakhstan, Finland, Estonia, Norway, the Russian Federation, Canada, Belarus, Sweden, the United States of America), where the average temperature was 6.19°C ± 1.61, the daily incidence of the population was 1876.72 ± 207.37, the total incidence of people was 44232.38 ± 5875.11, and the total mortality was 200,829 ± 310.13 cases [Prata D. N., Rodrigues W., Bermejo P. H., 2020; Qi H., Xiao S., Shi R., et.al ., 2020].
      Moreover, the number of morbidity and mortality cases per million population was significantly lower in countries with high temperatures of 711.23 and 16.27, respectively, compared with countries with low temperatures, 1685.99 and 86.40, respectively. In addition, in hot countries, a 1% increase in temperature significantly reduced the number of cases of disease and mortality from COVID-19 [Guo X.-J., Zhang H., Zeng Y.-P., 2020]. A graph of the distribution of cases of COVID-19 diseases and air temperature in the 20 previously mentioned countries is shown in Figure 1.2.

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