Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент, 2018, № 1
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STRATEGIC DECISIONS AND RISK MANAGEMENT & решения рискcтратегические менеджмент №1 (106) 2018 16+
Международная научно-практическая конференция УПРАВЛЕНЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ В СОВРЕМЕННОМ МИРЕ Конференция уже несколько лет выступает важной платформой для обсуждения самых разнообразных направлений исследований в контексте управленческих наук. Прием заявок на участие в конференции осуществляется через Личный кабинет пользователя. ЦЕЛЬ КОНФЕРЕНЦИИ Предоставление площадки для научных дискуссий и обеспечения взаимодействия между исследователями, аналитиками и практическими специалистами по актуальным проблемам управленческих наук. ПУБЛИКАЦИЯ МАТЕРИАЛА По итогам каждой конференции выпускается сборник научных докладов, входящий в Российский индекс научного цитирования (РИНЦ). Доклады принимаются на русском и на английском языках. СЕКЦИИ Тематика конференции включает обсуждение актуальных вопросов научных и практических исследований в следующих областях: • Цифровая экономика и е-business • Современный маркетинг и логистика • Инновации и современные бизнес-модели • Управление инвестициями в реальном секторе • От управления информацией к управлению знаниями • Совершенствование системы корпоративного управления: новые подходы, технологии и инструменты • Операционный менеджмент и управление бизнес-процессами • Математические методы и модели в управлении • Управление человеческими ресурсами • Актуальные проблемы и перспективы развития государственного управления • Теоретические проблемы управления • Оценка эффективности и результативности управления в организации • Вопросы совершенствования антикризисного управления • Управление крупными городами и городскими агломерациями • Финансовый менеджмент www.management-science.ru
КОЛОНКА РЕДАКТОРА Уважаемые господа! С этого номера журнал «Эффективное Антикризисное Управление» выходит под новым названием – «Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент». Это знаменует начало нового этапа развития журнала. В рамках процесса интеграции российской науки в международное научное сообщество мы поставили перед собой задачу создания двусторонней издательской платформы для взаимодействия авторов и читателей с целью поддержки международных исследований в области стратегического управления, принятия стратегических решений и риск-менеджмента. За последние несколько лет журнал «Эффективное Антикризисное Управление» добился существенных успехов: было опубликовано около 700 научных и практических статей, наукометрические показатели журнала значительно выросли, издание получило высокую оценку в научной и профессиональной среде. Редакции журнала «Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент» предстоит сохранить и приумножить достигнутое, расширяя круг тем, привлекая новых авторов, публикуя интересные и оригинальные научные статьи. В обновленном журнале особое внимание мы будем уделять теоретическим и эмпирическим исследованиям, а также кейсам из управленческой практики по следующим направлениям: – Стратегическое управление в бизнесе и общественном секторе; – Стратегические изменения в деятельности организации; – Стратегические управленческие решения: методы разработки, обоснования, принятия, реализации и контроля; – Межфирменное взаимодействие, слияния и поглощения; – Инновации, предпринимательство и формирование новых бизнес-моделей; – Управление технологическим развитием; – Устойчивые конкурентные преимущества; – Управление переходом к устойчивому развитию; – Концепции и методы управления эффективностью и результативностью деятельности организации; – Управление знаниями; – Стратегии управления различными видами рисков; – Риск-менеджмент и управленческие решения; – Оздоровление бизнеса (организации). Мы будем рады видеть вас среди авторов нашего журнала и с благодарностью примем ваши отзывы об обновленном издании. Главный редактор журнала «Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент» д. э. н. А. В. ТРАЧУК
РЕДАКЦИОННАЯ КОЛЛЕГИЯ ПРЕДСЕДАТЕЛЬ РЕДАКЦИОННОЙ КОЛЛЕГИИ ПОРФИРЬЕВ Борис Николаевич Доктор экономических наук, профессор, академик РАН, заместитель директора Института народнохозяйственного прогнозирования, зав. лабораторией анализа и прогнозирования природных и техногенных рисков экономики, РАН, Москва ЗАМЕСТИТЕЛЬ ПРЕДСЕДАТЕЛЯ ЭСКИНДАРОВ Михаил Абдрахманович Доктор экономических наук, профессор, ректор, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва ГЛАВНЫЙ РЕДАКТОР ТРАЧУК Аркадий Владимирович Доктор экономических наук, профессор, руководитель Департамента менеджмента, научный руководитель Факультета менеджмента, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, генеральный директор АО «Гознак», Москва БЫКОВ Андрей Александрович Доктор физико-математических наук, профессор, заслуженный деятель науки РФ, вице-президент Российского научного общества анализа риска, Москва ГИТЕЛЬМАН Лазарь Давидович Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой систем управления энергетикой и промышленными предприятиями Высшей школы экономики и менеджмента, Уральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина, Екатеринбург КАРЛИК Александр Евсеевич Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой экономики и управления предприятиями и производственными комплексами, Санкт-Петербургский государственный экономический университет, Санкт-Петербург КЛЕЙНЕР Георгий Борисович Доктор экономических наук, профессор, член-корреспондент РАН, заместитель директора Центрального экономикоматематического института Российской академии наук, научный руководитель стратегических инициатив и проектов научноинтеграционного объединения «АБАДА», Москва ЛИНДЕР Наталия Вячеславовна Кандидат экономических наук, профессор, заместитель главного редактора, заместитель руководителя Департамента менеджмента, руководитель научно-исследовательской лаборатории «Стратегии и инновации в бизнесе», Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва ЛОГИНОВ Евгений Леонидович Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заместитель директора по научной работе, Институт проблем рынка РАН, Москва МАРИНОВА Светла Ph.D., доцент, Университет Ольборга, Дания ПАНОВА Галина Сергеевна Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующая кафедрой «Банки, денежное обращение и кредит», Московский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) Министерства иностранных дел Российской Федерации, Москва ПЕТРОВСКИЙ Алексей Борисович Доктор технических наук, профессор, заведующий лабораторией методов и систем поддержки принятия решений ФГБУН, Институт системного анализа Российской академии наук (ИСА РАН), Москва ПРОКОФЬЕВ Станислав Евгеньевич Доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой «Государственное и муниципальное управление», Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва РАСТОВА Юлия Ивановна Доктор экономических наук, профессор, Санкт-Петербургский государственный экономический университет, Санкт–Петербург СОЛЕСВИК Марина Ph.D., профессор, бизнес-школа Университета НОРД, Норвегия ТОМИНЦ Полона Ph.D., профессор Департамента количественных методов анализа Факультета экономики и бизнеса, Университет Марибора, Словения. ФЕДОТОВА Марина Алексеевна Доктор экономических наук, профессор, руководитель Департамента корпоративных финансов и корпоративного управления, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва ЦВЕТКОВ Валерий Анатольевич Доктор экономических наук, профессор, член-корреспондент РАН, директор, Институт проблем рынка Российской академии наук, Москва ШАФЕР Тереза Ph.D., вице-президент Университета Тиффин, Огайо, США ЮДАНОВ Андрей Юрьевич Доктор экономических наук, профессор, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации, Москва ЧЛЕНЫ РЕДАКЦИОННОЙ КОЛЛЕГИИ
Редакция Учредители СОДЕРЖАНИЕ 12 26 102 80 Журнал «Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент» зарегистрирован Федеральной службой по надзору в сфере связи, информационных технологий и массовых коммуникаций (Роскомнадзор). Свидетельство ПИ № ФС 77–72389 от 28.02.2018 Учредитель – Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации»; Общество с ограниченной ответственностью «Издательский дом «Реальная экономика» Издатель – ООО «Издательский дом «Реальная экономика» Главный редактор – Аркадий ТРАЧУК Литературный редактор – Ольга КАППОЛЬ Дизайн – Ирина ЧУДИ Верстка – Николай КВАРТНИКОВ Корректор – Сима ПОШИВАЛОВА Генеральный директор – Валерий ПРЕСНЯКОВ Партнерские проекты по конференциям и семинарам – Александр ПРИВАЛОВ (pr@jsdrm.ru ) Подписка и распространение – Ирина КУЖИМ (podpiska@jsdrm.ru) Адрес редакции: 190020, Санкт-Петербург, Старо-Петергофский пр., 43–45, лит. Б, оф. 4н Тел.: (812) 346-5015, 346-5016 Факс: (812) 325-2099 www.jsdrm.ru, e-mail: info@jsdrm.ru ООО «Типография Литас+»: 190020, Санкт-Петербург, Лифляндская ул., 3 При использовании материалов ссылка на «Стратегические решения и рискменеджмент» обязательна Периодичность 4 раза в год Тираж 1900 экз. Свободная цена №1 (106) 2018 ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЙ РЫНОК ОБРАЗОВАТЕЛЬНЫХ ПРОДУКТОВ В IT-СФЕРЕ: ПРИОРИТЕТЫДЛЯРОССИЙСКИХУНИВЕРСИТЕТОВ ПОВЕДЕНЧЕСКАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА: СУЩНОСТЬ И ЭТАПЫ СТАНОВЛЕНИЯ АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ВОПРОСЫ СТОИМОСТНОЙ ОЦЕНКИ КОМПАНИЙ В УСЛОВИЯХ ФИНТЕХ КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ ФАКТОРЫ ЭФФЕКТИВНОГО ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ РАСПРЕДЕЛЕННОЙ ГЕНЕРАЦИИ В ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ Л.Д. ГИТЕЛЬМАН, С. Н. ШАБУНИН, М.В. КОЖЕВНИКОВ, А. В. ГАМБУРГ, Я. С. АЙМАШЕВА, Е.М. СТАРИКОВ 58 КОНФИГУРИРОВАНИЕ ОФИСА УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ПРОЕКТАМИ: ОПЫТ ИННОВАЦИОННОЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОЙ КОМПАНИИ И.В. КАТУНИНА 72 УПРАВЛЕНИЕ СПРОСОМ НА ЭЛЕКТРОПОТРЕБЛЕНИЕ В РОССИИ А.П. ДЗЮБА, И.А. СОЛОВЬЕВА 64 ОТРАСЛЕВЫЕ ОСОБЕННОСТИ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ МОДЕЛЕЙ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ БАНКРОТСТВА ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯ Е.А. ФЕДОРОВА, Л.Е. ХРУСТОВА, Д.В. ЧЕКРИЗОВ И.Н. ДРОГОБЫЦКИЙ 32 ТЕХНОЛОГИИ РАСПРЕДЕЛЕННОЙ ГЕНЕРАЦИИ: ЭМПИРИЧЕСКИЕ ОЦЕНКИ ФАКТОРОВ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ А.В. ТРАЧУК, Н.В. ЛИНДЕР 50 ОБЛАЧНЫЕ СЕРВИСЫ: СТИМУЛЫ ПОЛЬЗОВАТЕЛЕЙ К АДАПТАЦИИ А.Б. КУРЯТНИКОВ, Л.С. ОРЛОВА 88 CРАВНЕНИЕ ПАССАЖИРСКИХ ПЕРЕВОЗОК АВИАЦИОННЫМ И ЖЕЛЕЗНОДОРОЖНЫМ ТРАНСПОРТОМ А. Б. МАНВЕЛИДЗЕ 118 ВНЕДРЕНИЕ СИСТЕМЫ БЕРЕЖЛИВОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА В ПРОЦЕССЫ СОЗДАНИЯ И РАЗРАБОТКИ НОВЫХ ПРОДУКТОВ: ПРИМЕР КОМПАНИИ «НЕСТЛЕ РОССИЯ» Е. А. АРСЕНОВА, Т.Ю. НИКОЛАЕВА Е.А. ДЕМЬЯНОВА Г. Г. НАЛБАНДЯН, С. С. ЖОЛНЕРЧИК & решения рискcтратегические менеджмент №1 2018
GLOBAL MARKET OF EDUCATIONAL PRODUCTS IN THE IT SPHERE: PRIORITIES FOR RUSSIAN UNIVERSITIES L.D. GITELMAN Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of Energy and Industrial Enterprises Management Systems at the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: proactive management, organizational transformation, sustainable energy, management education. E-mail:ldgitelman@gmail.com S. N. SHABUNIN Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Director of the Institute of Radioelectronics and Information Technologies at the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: technical electrodynamics, telecommunication systems, radiolocation. E-mail: s.n.shabunin@urfu.ru M.V. KOZHEVNIKOV Ph.D. in Economics, assistant professor of the Department of Energy and Industrial Enterprises Management Systems at the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: science-intensive service, innovative development of industry, management education. E-mail: m.v.kozhevnikov@urfu.ru A. V. GAMBURG Ph.D. in Economics, assistant professor of the Department of Energy and Industrial Enterprises Management Systems at the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: strategic management, telecom business management, intellectual capital management. E-mail:gamburg@usp.ru I. S. AIMASHEVA Deputy Director of the Department of International Educational Programs at the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: international business management, educational process organization models, cross-cultural communications. E-mail: yana.aymasheva@gmail.com E.M. STARIKOV Master’s Degree Student at the FGAOU VO “Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin”. Research interests: technology entrepreneurship, renewable energy, digital technologies E-mail: theemailismine@gmail.com ABSTRACT: The article describes the key trends in education for the IT and radio electronics sectors, considers the comparative analysis of approaches to organization of scientifi c and educational activities in 30 foreign and domestic universities leading in subject ratings of QS Computer Science & Information Systems and Engineering – Electrical & Electronic. Characteristics of the trends are: • close and constantly increasing integration of educational and scientifi c fi elds of activity, which is refl ected in the emergence of interdisciplinary educational programs, linking the educational process to research in breakthrough areas of knowledge and the formation of specifi c university ecosystems aimed at leadership in specifi c technologies; • the variety of forms of organization of the educational process, the orientation towards modularity, individuality and continuity, which are actively used in the promotion of educational services; • the general backlog of Russian universities from IT practice and expectations of the real sector. The research methodology included analysis of the content and models for the implementation of educational products, expert opinions on the requirements for the formation of IT professionals. As a result, disparities between current industry trends, the current situation in education and demands of the real sector were defi ned. In the context of the example of a number of master’s programs developed at the Institute of Radioelectronics and Information Technologies of the Ural Federal University, a mechanism for integrating science, education and consulting in order to develop highly-demanded interdisciplinary educational products has been demonstrated. The results of the research can be used by domestic and foreign universities working in ITsegments, to increase competitiveness and implement strategic scientifi c and educational initiatives. KEYWORDS: information technologies, radioelectronics, university, educational product, master’s program, educational process, interdisciplinarity, ecosystem. & decisions risk strategic management
& решения рискcтратегические менеджмент №1 (106) 2018 I.N. DROGOBYTSKY Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of System Analysis in Economics at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. Research interests: system analysis in economics, economic and mathematical methods, knowledge economy E-mail: dinind@mail.ru BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS: THE ESSENCE AND STAGES OF FORMATION ABSTRACT: At the turn of the millennia appeared, and in subsequent years, a conceptually new economic theory-the behavioral economy-was signifi cantly entrenched. As all new, it caused some suspicion and opposition of the scientifi c economic community. This article aims to at least somehow reduce the detrimental impact of these trends. It examines the origins, main actors and a long history of the development of the behavioral economy. At the same time, the essence of its main provisions is revealed, their transformation in time and prospects for practical application are analyzed. KEYWORDS: game, risk, subjective value of wealth, value function, loss rejection ratio, choice architecture. A.V. TRACHUK Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Management Department, Research Supervisor of the Faculty of Management at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”, General Director of JSC “Goznak”. Research interests: strategy and management of company development, innovations, entrepreneurship and modern business models in the fi nancial and real sectors of economy, dynamics and development of e-business, operational experience and prospects for the development of natural monopolies. E-mail: Trachuk_A_V@goznak.ru N.V. LINDER Ph.D. in Economics, Professor, First Deputy Head of the Management Department at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. Research interests: strategy and management of company development, formation of a strategy for the development of industrial companies under the conditions of the fourth industrial revolution, innovation and transformation of business models, dynamics and development of e-business, strategies for developing energy companies under the conditions of the fourth industrial revolution, strategies for Russian companies to enter international markets. E-mail: NVLinder@fa.ru ABSTRACT: The assessment of problems and prospects of application of technologies of the distributed generation is presented by the industrial companies. The concept of the distributed generation and structure of technologies included in it is considered, sources of key competitive advantages of use of technologies of the distributed generation are revealed. For the analysis of the most signifi cant factors of perception of technologies of the distributed generation theindustrialcompanieshaveconductedthedeepsemi-structuredinter viewstorepresentativesof 8 large industrial companies, questioning of representatives of 69 industrial companies. For the analysis the regression model, allowing to determine force and the importance of infl uence of the selected factors on acceptance by the companies of the decision on own generation is used. For the analysed companies possibility of technical connection, cost of the electric power and the apprehended advantages are critical factors of decision-making on use of technologies of the distributed generation. Risk factor has appeared we don’t mean. In deep interviews respondents explained it to that systems of the distributed generation minimize emergence of the listed adverse effects. Receiving cheap electric and thermal energy, gradual accumulation of power capacities, uniformity of capital investments with fast obtaining energy for production and economic needs is possible to day in connection with use of power effective decisions on the basis of technologies of the distributed generation. KEYWORDS: power industry, distributed generation, new technologies, factors of acceptance of innovations, energy effi ciency TECHNOLOGIES OF THE DISTRIBUTED GENERATION: EMPIRICAL EVALUATIONS OF THE INNOVATIONS ACCEPTANCE
A.B. KURYATNIKOV Ph.D. in Technical Sciences, Deputy General Director for Science and Development JSC “Goznak”. Research interests: research and development management, corporate innovation systems, innovative strategy of companies, creation and distribution of a new product E-mail:Kuryatnikov_A_B@goznak.ru L.S. ORLOVA Postgraduate student of the Management Department at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. Research interests: strategic management, dissemination of innovations, innovative strategy of companies E-mail: LSOrlova2017@edu.fa.ru CLOUD SERVICES: INCENTIVES OF USERS TO ADAPTATION ABSTRACT: Information technologies infl uence a place and competitiveness of the companies on the international scene. Сloud technologies take root practically in all branches of economy both in state and in the private sphere the advanced information technologies. The essence of cloud technologies consists in granting to end users of remote dynamic access to services, computing resources and appendices (including operating systems and infrastructure) on the Internet. The purposes of this work are: the analysis of speed of distribution of cloudy technologies in the Russian Federation and the world; defi nition of drivers of development and distribution barriers in the Russian market; development prospects of cloud-based technology and proposing measures s for stimulating their development . Survey of representatives of the companies participating of the market of cloud services was conducted for the analysis of the factors infl uencing distribution of cloud services in Russia. The factors infl uencing the direction development prospects of cloudbased technology are defi ned by the factorial analysis of answers of respondents in the SPSS program. Based on the results of the survey, the forecasted values of the development of the cloud services market were made. The infrastructure, economic, marketing factors promoting advance of cloud services in the Russian market are revealed as a result of the conducted research. The factors interfering growth of the market of cloud technologies are legal, social and economic, technological and marketing. Tools were developed for stimulation of distribution of cloud services on the basis of the received results. On the basis of the obtained results, it can be concluded that in order to preserve sustainable development, it is expedient to specialize companies for the production of one type of products or in a particular industry. Also it is recommended to develop products for public sector, providers of cloud services only started mastering this sphere. If other information technologies are usually offered to customers through IT directors, then cloud products should be promoted by addressing directly to directors of companies or other representatives distributing the budget. KEY WORDS: cloudservices, cloudtechnologies, factoranalysis, technologyspreadrate, diffusionofi nnovation. CONFIGURING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT OFFICE: CASE OF AN INNOVATION INDUSTRIAL COMPANY ABSTRACT: Project management development in various industries and spheres of activity has caused a variety of forms and functions of project management offi ces. This has caused the need to develop an approach to the confi guration of the offi ce of a company. The research object – an innovative industrial company – predetermined the need to form a project management offi ce as a center of management consulting. The study was carried out on the basis of the case-study methodology, which combined the documents analysis, assessment of the project management maturity and survey methods. It proposes and approves the approach to designing the project offi ce confi guration based on the assessment of the level of organizational and technological project management maturity. The in-depth study of the industrial innovation company made it possible to disclose the main components and connections in the system «innovation – project management (project offi ce) – consulting». As a result, the set of functions of the project management offi ce is determined, and in particular, the content of the consultancy function in the process of the current activity within the innovative industrial company (process consulting). KEY WORDS: project, innovation project, project management, project management offi ce. I.V. KATUNINA Doctor of Economics, assistant professor, Professor of the Department of Innovation and Project Management at the FGBOU VO “Omsk F.M. Dostoevsky State University”. Research interests: project management, change management and organizational development. Email: i.v.katunina@gmail.com & decisions risk strategic management
& решения рискcтратегические менеджмент №1 (106) 2018 E.А. FEDOROVA Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Corporate Finance and Corporate Management at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. Research interests: economic and mathematical methods and models, fi nancial management, bankruptcy forecasting. Е-mail: ecolena@mail.ru L.E. KHRUSTOVA Postgraduate student of the Department of Corporate Finance and Corporate Management at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. Research interests: bankruptcy forecasting, fi nancial control, fi nancial management. Е-mail: khrustoval@yandex.ru D.V. CHEKRIZOV Chief fi nancial analyst of JSC “GlobalTel”. Research interests: fi nancial management, bankruptcy forecasting. Е-mail: chekrizovdv@mail.ru INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICS OF BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS APPLIANCE ABSTRACT: The aim of the research is to develop the methodology of bankruptcy prediction applying the specifi ed statutory values of the existing models with a glance to company’s industry and developing the author’s prediction model. Initially authors estimated the forecast accuracy of the existing models for the enterprises of 8 industries. Using CART (Classifi cation And Regression Tree) methodology the original statutory values of the models were specifi ed for every industry under research. The calculated statutory values demonstrated the high level of prediction accuracy and balanced the indicators of accuracy for bankrupt and non-bankrupt companies. The indicators with the maximum level of signifi cance for bankruptcy prediction were selected from all the models. They formed a basis for a new developed model, which has demonstrated the high level of prediction accuracy on a sample under research. The statutory values for the new model were also developed.Theim plementationoftheresearch’sresultswillincreasetheeffi ciencyofbank ruptcypredictionandlowthenumberofbankruptcompanies. KEY WORDS: bankruptcy, bankruptcy prediction, prediction models, classical model, bankruptcy within industries ELECTRICAL ENERGY DEMAND MANAGEMENT IN RUSSIA ABSTRACT: One of the modern and effective tools for energy effi ciency improvement at the level of national economies is management of the demand for electrical energy consumption. The mechanism of management of the demand for electrical energy consumption has a signifi cant potential for energy effi ciency improvement for the Russian economy, but due to structural features of the Unifi ed Energy System of Russia, the Electrical Energy Demand Management Program is at the stage of concept development. A model of management of the demand for electrical energy consumption for Unifi ed Energy System of Russia has been developed taking into account structural features of the electric power system. Peculiarities of the economic structure of Russia, which infl uence the formation of the structure of the country’s electric power complex, have been revealed. They were taken into account when developing requirements for the electrical energy demand management system in the Unifi ed Energy System of Russia. The basic features are the multilevel form and hierarchy of the structure; they have been investigated in the process of developing the demand management model. The classifi cation of electric power industry entities, related to processes of electric energy circulation and the infl uence on the management of the demand for electrical energy consumption, has been developed with economic interests of each entity within the framework of the demand management model. The electrical energy demand management model, which is based on the hierarchical structure of demand management, has been developed and covers the whole complex of management functions and takes into account features of demand management at each management level. The model allows to signifi cantly improve the effi ciency of management of the demand for electrical energy consumption, to ensure the quality of management. КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА: energy effi ciency, electrical energy consumption, electric power industry in Russia, electric power industry entities in Russia, regional energy production, GDP power intensity, demand for electrical energy consumption, demand management, Unifi ed Energy System of Russia. A.P. DZYUBA Ph.D. in Economics, Deputy General Director of LLC “MSK Energo”. Research interests: energy consumption management of industrial enterprises, demand management, price-dependent electrical energy consumption. E-mail: dzyuba-a@yandex.ru. I.A. SOLOVEVA Ph.D. in Economics, assistant professor of the Department of Finance, Money Circulation and Credit of the Higher School of Economics and Management at the FGAOU VO “South Ural State University (National Research University)”. Research interests: energy consumption management of industrial enterprises, price-dependent electrical energy consumption, investment analysis and investment risk assessment. E-mail: Solovevaia@susu.ru.
G.G. NALBANDYAN Postgraduate student of the Management Department, assistant at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. Research interests: development strategies of industrial companies, entry into international markets, inter-fi rm cooperation, transformation of business models E-mail:GGNalbandyan@fa.ru S. S. ZHOLNERCHIK Ph.D. in Economics, assistant professor Research interests: assessment of management decision making, economy and management of the electric power industry, effi ciency of energy companies E-mail: 6479585@mail.ru ABSTRACT: The reduction in the cost of technologies for distributed generation involves an increasing decentralization of power generation and large-scale development of distributed sources around the world. This trend is a key change in both the characteristics of electricity consumption: it is becoming increasingly fl exible and mobile, and the patterns of consumer behavior in the electricity market. Electricity consumers are becoming at the same time its suppliers and require revision of traditional regulation standards of the electricity market. The purpose of the article is to assess the infl uence of distributed generation on the economy of both enterprises and the country as a whole. To identify the effects of the introduction of distributed generation technologies, the method of case study analysis is used. The empirical analysis was carried out on the basis of twelve Russian companies that use their own energy sources. The selected companies belong to the following industries: industrial production, housing and communal services, retail trade, construction, agriculture. Technological and economic effects are revealed. Technological ones include: improving consumer reliability, energy security, involving local energy resources, optimizing load management and redundancy, providing the fl exibility of smart grids (in terms of generation), reducing the load on the environment, including CO2 emissions. Economic effects: optimization of the load schedule, reduction of losses in the process of transmission/distribution of energy, expansion of cogeneration, etc., providing the consumer with the electricity of a given quality, saving losses in networks, reducing the cost of energy. The identifi ed effects of the introduction of distributed generation technologies make it possible to highlight the advantages of regeneration facilities: high effi ciency and the possibility of cogeneration and trigeneration, individual maneuvering capacity loading, high reliability of equipment, low cost of transportation of electricity, fuel usage of the by-products and the main production waste. In conclusion, recommendations are formulated on a set of measures for the development of industrial distributed generation in Russia at the Federal level. KEYWORDS: power industry, distributed generation, energy effi ciency, decentralized power industry, cogeneration, trigeneration TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISTRIBUTED GENERATION: KEY PERFORMANCE FACTORS FOR INDUSTRIAL APPLICATION A.B. MANVELIDZE Ph.D. in Economics, assistant professor of the Department of Financial Management at the FGOBU VO “Stankin Moscow State Technological University”. Research interests: air transport economics Е-mail: a.b.manvelidze@ gmail.com COMPARISON ANALYSIS OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC BY AIR AND RAIL TRANSPORT ABSTRACT: The article analyses passenger traffi c distribution between air transport on domestic air routes and railway transport on the routes of large distances within the Russian Federation. The research objective is to defi ne the air traffi c increase potential especially on the distances up to 2500 km. City-pairs air passenger traffi c and railway passenger traffi c between the destination points statistics for 2014 and 2016, distances between the points of destination and actual economy class air fares and railway compartment carriage tariffs as well data on airports state in corresponding points of destination are used as original information. Pivot tables of traffi c on 5 thousand routes by both modes of transport are drawn up. Specifi c traffi c shares by air transport between points of origin (taking off) and destination (landing) are defi ned. Passenger traffi c distribution is evaluated by distance intervals in Russian Federation as a whole and from major airports : Moscow, Ekaterinburg, Sochi and Simferopol. The analysis defi nes the trend of traffi c share increase by air transport along with rising traffi c distances. The research reveals that 94,2% of passenger traffi c by rail and 83% of traffi c by air are carried for the distances up to 2 500 km. The statistics example of passenger traffi c from Moscow and Ekaterinburg demonstrates that regional routes with distances up to 1000 km are the main increase potential for the traffi c growth. In 2016 traffi c share by air transport for the distances interval up to 1000 km was 16%. According to the tariffs analysis the conclusion is made that air fares exceed rail tariffs on fl ight distances up to 1000 km (because of the short distances fl ight speculiarities) and on the routes to hard-to-reach and remote areas. Passengers choice in favor of air transport on regional routes depends on creation of economic conditions to attract more passengers. KEY WORDS: passenger traffi c, air transport, domestic air lines, railway transport, city-pairs, point of destination, distances, tariff, distribution, air transport share, regional traffi c, increase potential. & decisions risk strategic management
& решения рискcтратегические менеджмент №1 (106) 2018 Е.А. DEMYANOVA fi nancial expert, MBA, applicant for Ph.D. in Economics of the Department of Corporate Finance and Corporate Management at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. Research interests: evaluation of business, intangible assets, fi ntech. EADemyanova@ya.ru ABSTRACT: The purpose of the current study was to form theoretical issues and practical recommendations on development of methodology evaluation for companies implementing modern fi nancial technologies. The research was conducted based on methodology of systematic research, synthesis, abstract logic and scientifi c forecast, statistical methods and factor analysis methods, expert evaluation, real option method, explored fuzzy logic. Research resulted in discovery of such companies’ features that implement modern fi nancial technology as evaluation objects, as well as exogenous and endogenous factors that impact the evaluation of the researched companies, and these factors’ classifi cation offered; there were methodological recommendations developed on qualitative and quantitative ranking of specifi c indeterminacy; there were adaptations performed to discounted cash fl ows, real options, and ratio methods. The methodology developed was approbated based on domestic and foreign companies that provide consulting and evaluations services. As a result of its usage, a more precise evaluation was provided for the companies implementing modern fi nancial technologies. A separate practical usage regarded the adopted method of discounting rate calculation based on the correction for specifi c fi ntech implementation risks and the developed mechanism of real options usage for additional company’s value that allows receiving a more accurate evaluation numbers. The classifi cation manual of specifi c risks developed by the author is used by evaluation practitioners. The scientifi c issues and practical recommendations on improvement of the companies’ evaluation that were developed within the study are being used for teaching of “Evaluation and business value management” course in Financial University. KEY WORDS: fi ntech, evaluation, risks, evaluation methodology, real options, ratios, discounting rate. CURRENT ISSUES OF COMPANY EVALUATION UNDER FINTECH Е.А. ARSENOVA Ph.D. in Economics, Professor of the Management Department, Dean of the Faculty of Management at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. Research interests: innovation management and entrepreneurship, e-business. E-mail: Earsenova@fa.ru T.YU. NIKOLAEVA Project Manager of the company “Nestle Russia”, Master’s Degree Student of the Program “Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship” of the Management Department at the FGOBU VO “Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation”. Research interests: innovation management and entrepreneurship. E-mail: tanyanikolaeva23@gmail.com ABSTRACT: In paper effi ciency of introduction of system of economical production in processes of creation and development of innovative products on “Nestle”- Russia is considered. Features of introduction of system of economical production are defi ned by features of work of the company in FMCG sphere. Research is focused on identifi cation of the least effective processes of development of innovative products. Research is conducted in two stages: on the fi rst questioning in which more than 200 experts in the fi eld of development and start of innovative products of the companies which working in sector of FMCG and have got to selection took part is carried out: «Нестле Россия», Mars, Danone, Unilever, Ferrero, RB, P&G, Froneri, L’oreal, Colgate, Pepsico, Coca-Cola, Multon. Questioning is carried out among specialists of the above-named companies from all functional divisions which are taking part in development and start of novelties: marketing, fi nance, planning, purchases of raw materials and materials, applied groups of factories, marketing communications, project managers; at the second stage deep interviews to experts in the fi eld in the “Nestle Russia” company that allowed to understand better than the reason of low effi ciency of separate stages of process of development and start of innovations are conducted. As a result of research a number of the factors having the strongest impact on effi ciency of processes of development of new products and planning of sales is revealed: absence of standards, incorrect timing, confusion and poor quality of comments after tastings, absence of understanding of target cost of a compounding. On the basis of the conducted research the standard, allowing to systematize earlier unformalized process is offered, to defi ne key development stages of a compounding of new products and their sequence. The practical value of the developed standard consists in: the accounting of classifi cation of projects on three categories depending on type of raw materials, the equipment and investments; to development of timing of the project according to the chosen category taking into account the terms coordinated in the standard and features for each category of projects; introduction of internal tests of consumer preferences at factory for minimization of expenses and decrease in risks of loss in the large-scale consumer tests which are carried out by third-party agencies, a preliminary estimate of cost of a compounding applied group of factory when developing samples. KEYWORDS: innovations, development of new products, economical production, FMCG sector, competitiveness, industrial enterprise INFLUENCE OF INTRODUCTION OF SYSTEM OF ECONOMICAL PRODUCTION ON PROCESSES OF CREATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN INNOVATIVE PRODUCT: COMPANY EXAMPLE «NESTLÉ RUSSIA»