Russian foliage and world organic-based energy sector in a contest of sustainable civilization development

  В.М. БОЛДЫРЕВ



RUSSIAN FOLIAGE AND WORLD ORGANIC-BASED ENERGY SECTOR IN A CONTEST OF SUSTAINABLE CIVILIZATION DEVELOPMENT

Статья








Москва ИНФРА-М 2019

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          Болдырев В.М.
Б79      Russian foliage and world organic-based energy
sector in a contest of sustainable civilization development : статья / В.М. Болдырев.    — М. :
     ИНФРА-М, 2019. — 10 с.


     ISBN 978-5-16-107881-5 (online)

          Для квалифицированных специалистов и научных работников, а также всех интересующихся вопросами экологического развития в России и в мире.

УДК 504+008
ББК 20.18:60.5

ISBN 978-5-16-107881-5 (online)

© Болдырев В.М., 2019

Perspectives in Energy, 2003, volume 7, pages 3-168





                Russian foliage and world organic-based energy sector in a contest of sustainable civilization development





Vitaly M. Boldyrev “Rosenergoatom” Concern Moscow, Russia




Abstract. At sustainable development, the man-caused carbon dioxide emissions should not exceed the ability of their absorption by the regional flora. In the Kyoto Protocol, limitation is stated for different countries concerning the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions; the carbon dioxide, by the widespread opinion, causes the global climate change. Regulation is proposed, as the alternative to the Protocol, concerning the anthropogenic consumption of the atmospheric oxygen because, besides the carbon dioxide, water vapor is also produced by the organic fuel burning - and the water vapor is also the “greenhouse gas”. Besides, even under the condition of total absorption of the produced carbon dioxide by the regional flora, regeneration of initial oxygen content in the atmosphere should not take place. The paper presents the combusting fuel consumption data for over 40 countries as the carbon dioxide emission and absorption volumes and also oxygen production by different native zones and its anthropogenic consumption calculated according to the original author’ s technique. For some countries, including Russia, the Kyoto Protocol “allowed” annual carbon dioxide emissions are significantly lower than absorption by floras of those countries. A problem is discussed of after-effects of the Kyoto Protocol ratification for Russia.

1 Russian ecology doctrine and sustainable development
The well-known definition by the World Commission on Environment and Development headed by G. H. Brundtland reads as follows: “The sustainable development is the development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (Future 1989).
   If one takes for granted a diffused opinion that global climate change is a result of anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide that put the future generations on risk, than, under stable development, the man-caused carbon dioxide emissions should not exceed the amount to be absorbed by the region foliage. This statement appears from the requirement of conservation of the environmental system ability to self-regulation being the necessary condition of the human society existence (Gorshkov 1995).
   Yet, within the frames of the Kyoto Protocol (Protocol 1997), the European Union countries and Japan show evident discrimination against Russia: at annual absorption of 11.2 bln t of carbon dioxide by the Russian foliage, the annual emission is only permitted within 2.4 bln t, that is, about 22% of the absorbed quantity - whereas the Japan foliage absorbs annually 0.4 bln t of carbon dioxide and the 1990 emission permitted by the Kyoto Protocol is as high as 1.2 bln t, that is, 300% of the absorbed quantity. For Belgium, the emissions permitted equal to 870% of the absorbed quantity, for Germany - 500%, for Denmark - 440%, for Italy - 340%, for the Netherlands - 1500%, and for Great Britain -680%. The Kyoto Protocol treats these huge amounts of emissions as against the absorption by the country foliage to be certain “standard”!
   If the Kyoto Protocol “as is” will be ratified by Russia than, in 2020, only in electrical energy sector, Russia should pay fines of about 32.8-35.2 bln Euro per year because the permitted annual emissions will be exceeded by 327.8-251.8 mln t of carbon dioxide.

V M Boldyrev



    “Everything good for the General Motors is also good for America”, - said one of the US business leaders. The Russian nuclear energy developers would be interested in the Kyoto Protocol ratification because necessity of emission decrease at the GDP increase in Russia should demand substitution of thermoelectric power stations and boilers by nuclear power sources. Yet, the Protocol ratification will cause unwarrantable economic damage to Russia for the sake of environmental and economic interests of the European Union countries and Japan.
    Regulation of atmospheric oxygen consumption by industry can serve a reasonable alternative to the Kyoto Protocol; this alternative provides sustainable development and engage the Protocol mechanisms as far as atmosphere nature management is concerned (Boldyrev 2001). Apologists of global warming as a result of anthropogenic impact consider water vapor to be the major greenhouse gas. It is actually known that the greenhouse effect is 78% caused by water vapor and only 22% by carbon dioxide (Flint 1978). It is also known that during the organic fuel burning, atmospheric oxygen is spent for generation not only of CO₂ but also water vapor. Even absorbing all the carbon dioxide generated during the carbonic fuel burning, the plants still will not recover the initial oxygen content in the atmosphere. So, even at the standpoint of adherents of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, not the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions should be quoted but the anthropogenic oxygen consumption.
    The sustainable development concept and strategy are understanding of the boundaries and limits that the society should not get over in the name of self-preservation. In 70th, John Hartwick was the first to formulate conditions of sustainable development of an economics having limited natural resources at its disposal. It was further shown that this condition should be treated as conservation of joint social capital including reproducible capital (equipment, buildings, etc.), human capital (knowledge and skills), and nature capital (natural resources and quality of environment by any economical estimation). The economic development should be sustainable if the net investment into the joint social capital is non-negative. The September, 2000, World Bank data show that, for example, in Russia, in 1997, the net investment into the joint social capital was negative and equal to minus 1.6% of the GDP (Eismont 2000).
    In all world regions, the human capital forms the lion's share of total joint capital. As Russia will hardly move away from its raw material orientation in the nearest future, it is necessary to dispose of revenues from the bowel exploitation in the best way. And not only the bowels. Nowadays, the atmospheric oxygen from Russia is free of charge enjoyed by major European Union countries, Japan, and other countries.
    Fixing of the unshakable world order that correlates the organic fuel trade with ecology and, above all, with consumer ability to meet the requirements of sustainable development - the man-caused nature management should not exceed the biocenosis ability of the environment reproduction - is the most vital necessity now, under the world economy globalization. Thus, from the standpoint of sustainable development, the industrial consumption of the atmospheric oxygen at a country (region) territory should nor exceed the country (region) foliage ability to recover the atmospheric oxygen by photosynthesis.
    But if it already does exceed? The developed countries were ready to purchase (according to the Kyoto Protocol) the absorption quotes by $10-20 per ton of the carbon dioxide. Under the regulation of the atmospheric oxygen consumption, cost of the oxygen consumption license should amount $13.8-27.6 per ton. Besides, the emission of 1.4 t of carbon dioxide will be to some extent paid-up. Under establishment of those kind international regulations, purchase of organic fuel should be added by either presentation

Russian foliage and world organic-based energy sector in a contest
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of respective license for the purchaser to burn necessary volume of atmospheric oxygen or the license purchase together with the fuel (oil, gas, coil) purchase. Under the nowaday world oil prices and the above stated oxygen burning quota prices, total oil price should increase by 30-60%. According to estimation by OPEC ex-General Secretary, Mr. Rilvanu Lukman, only increase in the ecological taxes for oil product consumption should bring the OPEC countries $600 bln material losses within the nearest 25 years (averaged, $25 bln per year). Yet, the sustainable development should be paid-up and Russia can’t render free of charge services to the developed countries for ever! Russian foliage produces annual 5.4 bln t of “excess” oxygen and its disposal can give the country up to $70-140 bln per year. And the best way of dealing with all these incomes for Russia, as for any other country, is to enlarge investment into its human capital providing its sustainable development.

2  Role of the flora
According to the data of the International Biological Program, nowadays, the biological production of the Earth foliage equals to 170 bln t biomass per year. The planet biomass includes about 18% of carbon (GED 1991). This carbon is accumulated by the planet flora as a result of absorption of the atmospheric carbon dioxide in the photosynthesis process.
    Thus, for such annual carbon accumulation, 112.2 bln t of the atmospheric CO₂ should be absorbed. Resulting from the reaction

6CO2 + 6H2O + SOLAR ENERGY = C6H12O6 + 6O2

in the process of absorption of that carbon dioxide, 81.6 bln t of oxygen are produced and enter the atmosphere; and carbohydrate become the base for plant growth.
    On the base of more accurate calculations of annual efficiency of the Earth plant photosynthesis over all native zones, we show the annual CO2 absorption by the whole plane flora is equal to mCO = 184.1 bln t, the annual atmospheric O2 production by the flora mO = 138.3 bln t - thus, the quotient of those values is the same as resulting from the above estimation, inCOJinO =1.3.
    Our more exact calculations are based on the results of biologic and botanic studies (Moiseev 1979; Kultiesov 1982; FE 1987; Alpat’ev 1983; Sytnik 1987; Ages 1985) and account for the following factors:
—   the leaves begin to absorb CO₂ after they reach one-fourth of their final size; the absorption gains its maximum when the leaves reach three-fourth of their final size;
—   averaged photosynthesis plant properties are different over different latitudes;
—   different life forms of plants possess different properties;
—   leaf surface indices are different for different plants;
—   growth class (ratio of averaged height to age of the main part of the upper stand assise) varies with the plant type.
    The photosynthesis CO2 absorption by plants leaving in the water environment is determined for a region with account for the water irradiation coefficient depending on the water transparency. It is known that the major CO2 mass is located in ocean where its mass is 60 times larger than in atmosphere (Karnaukhov 2001). The ocean occupies 70.8% of the Earth surface. Yet, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere coincides with the same of dissolved carbon dioxide in the upper ocean layer and three times lower than the same in the ocean depth. This ratio is provided by a biotic pump: the flow of nonorganic carbon from the ocean depth to the surface is compensated by the organic carbon

V M Boldyrev

synthesis near the surface and it’s dipping into the ocean depth where it decomposes (Losev, 2001).
   The volume oxygen solubility in water is 6.25 times lower than the same of carbon dioxide. In oceans and seas, oxygen is mainly produced at the water area shelves and its entrance to the atmosphere decreases year by year due to catastrophic pollution of ocean and, primarily, shelves. Only 320 bln t of the Earth biosphere living substance, of total 2420 bln t, is now located in the ocean (Losev 1985). Under the assumption that the plant/animal ratio in ocean is similar to the same overland, the ocean produces by photosynthesis about 14-15% of molecular oxygen, that is, 20 bln t - not 80 bln t by estimations of certain authors.
   Consider photosynthesis: chlorophyll is known to be a catalyst; photo ionization is provided by the solar irradiation within the wavelength range 380-710 nm; the photosynthesis process gains its optimum at ambient air temperature of 25 -28°С.
   Biologists divide everything living into two groups as against the vital function energy supply: heterotrophs and autotrophs.
   The heterotrophs receive energy from oxidizing of “finished” complex organics and release carbon dioxide and water into the atmosphere: the photosynthesis reaction is going “from left to right”. The heterotrophic group includes people, animals, mushrooms, most bacteria, and plants in a particular state.
   The autotrophs are photo synthesizing plants that use solar energy to produce complex organics from, generally, water and carbon dioxide; several chemosynthesizing bacteria are also autotrophs.
   Total annual molecular oxygen produced by Earth foliage due to the photosynthesis is spared for auto- and heterotrophic breathing, for the organic substance decomposition, for weathering rock oxidizing, and, at last, for the anthropogenic consumption. The anthropogenic oxygen consumption resulting from natural fuel burning - coal, gas, oil and their products - is calculated for all countries and also for the world as a whole.
   Table 1 presents the initial data on annual burning of coal, gas, and oil and also the areas of photosynthesizing surfaces (leaf forests, coniferous forests, other forest and nonforest areas, agricultural land, water surfaces) taken for further calculations - for each country a whole.
   Table 2 presents the results of calculations of atmospheric oxygen production by the region flora and the oxygen anthropogenic consumption as the carbon dioxide absorption by the flora and its anthropogenic emission.
   Table 2 shows that, concerning the atmospheric oxygen consumption, USA, Great Britain, Germany, Italy, many other West and East Europe countries, Republic of Korea, Japan and others are the “parasite” countries whereas Russia, Canada, Brazil, Australia and others are the world “donor” countries.
   As far as the carbon dioxide absorption by the countries’ flora and its anthropogenic emissions, similar status takes place as well as the same countries are “parasites” and the same - “donors”. USA is the exception: here, hydrocarbon fuel consumption is extremely large resulting in certain decrease in the carbon dioxide emissions and increase in the water vapor emissions.

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Table 1. Environmental & energy characteristics of the world countries (as of 90th).*          
Country       Annual fuel consumption,            Photosynthesizing surface area,              
                     103 t c.e.                               sq. km                           
                  Coal     Gas    Oil      Leaf   Conife-  Other     Other    Agricul-  Water 
                                          forests  rous   forests  non-forest  tural   surface
                                                  forests            areas    areas     area  
USA           687200       698400 1207800 1930000 1000000  1961780 2414670    1899150  206010 
Canada        38900        78900  116000  1590000 2000000  4890470 281000     459500   755170 
Brazil        15900        5100   98200   4930300 0        1084210 1842000    600000   55460  
Argentina     1800         26100  31000   592000  0       450690   1422000    272000   30200  
Venezuela     400          35600  29500   301750  0       364350   177000     38950    30000  
Mexico        9500         45900  112500  424600  0       492000   744990     24700    49510  
Austria       5470         7800   17400   30000      2270 15460    19950      15050        920
Belgium and   15700        11800  40000   6000        990 10730    6710       8190         780
Luxemburg                                                                                     
Great Britain 87500        74500  128200  12000     12000 39230    111800     66570    3280   
Germany       161800       78100  206800  69290     34640 65060    56180      121140   7640   
Greece        11800        280    24000   26200   0       10810    52550      39340    3090   
Denmark       13470        2800   14200   4930    0           9580 2170       25710        700
Ireland       62000        20000  71000   0          3430     9110 46920      9430     1390   
Iceland       1440         0      1000    0          1200 76230    22740      80       2750   
Italy         20450        60000  142100  67520   0       57990    4980       119750   7210   
Spain         17260        7600   71400   156450  0       37140    102000     203250   5340   
Netherlands   13250        46000  54900   0          3000 10660    10960      9300     3410   
Norway        720          0      14000   0         83300 213770   1120       8640     17070  
Portugal      1150         0      17700   29680   0       22050    8490       31730        440
Turkey        32400        5300   34100   201990  0       203540   85000      279100   9820   
Finland       5180         3300   16500   20000    212220 46810    1220       24360    33520  
France        28400        38000  137900  120000    28110 95710    113800     192400   1400   
Sweden        2900         1000   22600   0        280200 97600    5560       28260    38340  
Switzerland   430          2000   21000   5260       5260     9040 16090      4120     1520   
Hungary       8350         12600  11600   16950   0       10650    11860      52880        690
Poland        114800       11900  21200   21885     65655 28950    40600      147330   8260   
Rumania       24800        56500  28400   34000     30000 18660    47230      100400   7160   
Czechia and   45600        14000  20400   46190   0       11810    16410      50950    2510   
Slovakia                                                                                      
Russia        219568       589514 385056  1267752 5261038  1144563 1035966    1518550  1358552
Iran          1400         31000  73400   180200  0       865300   440000     150500   12000  
Saudi Arabia  0            41400  74900   12000   0       126404   850000     23650          0
China         783000       18400  182500  948862   346288  3095630 4000000    956630   270550 
India         152600       17600  90000   667000  0       494890   120500     1690800  314400 
Indonesia     5600         11200  50200   1134330 0       339240   118000     220000   93000  
Malaysia      700          11100  17500   193300  0       86180           270 48800    1200   
New Zealand   1800         5600   7300    73500   0       55470    13490      4120     3000   
Singapore     0            0      30800   30      0            570          0 10            10
Thailand      6800         9400   32700   141000  0       140690   7800       221400   2230   
Philippines   1700         0      17200   103500  0       102370   12600      7970     1830   
Republic of   34700        4900   87000   89700   0       10210           500 20000        130
Korea                                                                                         
Japan         113200       68100  382300  251050  0       73040    6470       45960    1280   
Africa        116350       52900  155500  6851690 0       11971600 9002420    1816100  651320 
Australia     57450        22700  48200   1060000 0        1918830 4176420    489190   68920  
* By various references.                                                                       

V M Boldyrev

Table 2. О₂ production and its anthropogenic consumption, СО₂ emissions and its absorption by the world countries.*

Country           О2     О2 anthro-     О2        СО2        СО2         СО2         СО2    
              production  pogenic   production absorption anthropo-   anthropo-   absorption
                by the    consump-     vs.       by the     genic       genic        vs.    
                native      tion    consumpti-   native   emission  emission * **  emission 
                zones    103 t      on balance   zones    103 t     103 t          balance  
                103 t                            103 t                                      
USA           4473644    6002673    negative   6090030    5844226         4957022 positive  
Canada        5827261    544212     positive   7931001    519598    457441        positive  
Brazil        5365747    276620     positive   7343337    268592                - positive  
Argentina     1062038    137126     positive   1437707    121334              --- positive  
Venezuela     463702     152615     positive   629649     129332                - positive  
Mexico        744568     390315     positive   1008257    368443                - positive  
Austria       42604      71338      negative   58087      70165     59200         negative  
Belgium and   13690      156937     negative   18526      160541    124748        negative  
Luxemburg                                                                                   
Great Britain 75340      675525     negative   101486     686948    584078        negative  
Germany       161471     1039393    negative   219754     1100529         1012443 negative  
Greece        46515      83799      negative   62989      92220     82100         negative  
Denmark       13393      70876      negative   18040      78417     52100         negative  
Ireland       19148      35595      negative   25650      38594     30719         negative  
Iceland       36736            2653 positive   48452           2779          2172 positive  
Italy         107370     517453     negative   145761     494121    428941        negative  
Spain         214336     223525     negative   291873     231943    260654        positive  
Netherlands   12098      265790     negative   16252      244740    167600        negative  
Norway        180120     34128      positive   244302     35008     35533         positive  
Portugal      42892      43706      negative   58343      44980     42148         positive  
Turkey        331173     166995     positive   449308     186113                - positive  
Finland       280875     58045      positive   386403     59734     53900         positive  
France        235065     474775     negative   319503     471740    366536        negative  
Sweden        360015     61484      positive   494669     63389     61256         positive  
Switzerland   18426      54356      negative   25075      53870     43600         negative  
Hungary       31552      75844      negative   42721      73154     71673         negative  
Poland        139864     344693     negative   190751     413327    414930        negative  
Rumania       100274     255874     negative   136557     234647    171103        negative  
Czechia and   59283      186382     negative   80851      280028    227792        negative  
Slovakia                                                                                    
Russia        8130308    2784029    positive     11162736 2538708         2388720 positive  
Iran          621477     245933     positive   834479     227716                - positive  
Saudi Arabia  686532     270489     positive   913743     244241                - positive  
China         3475759    2291982    positive   4680720    2810985               - positive  
India         1184264    605644     positive   1603511    698735                - positive  
Indonesia     1235715    155621     positive   1692072    153134                - positive  
Malaysia      216655     68168      positive   296513     61531                 - positive  
New Zealand   91942      34220      positive   125446     31802     25530         positive  
Singapore            253 71387      negative          338 72259                 - negative  
Thailand      223693     113646     positive   303739     112703                - positive  
Philippines   137512     43830      positive   187365     45460                 - positive  
Republic of   88442      294033     negative   121500     316469                - negative  
Korea                                                                                       
Japan         264312     1309431    negative   362372     1349707         1173360 negative  
Australia     2680886    298809     positive   3610474    323249    288965        positive  

* The calculations are made according the author method.

** As presented by the countries for the Kyoto Protocol.

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3 Necessary measures
So, nowadays, the “fire” energy sector has already entered into contradiction with the fundamental humanity self-preservation principle: “the man-caused nature management should not exceed the biocenosis ability of the environment reproduction”. That is, for the sustainable development of humanity, the man-caused consumption of the atmospheric oxygen in a region (country) as well as the industrial carbon dioxide emissions should not exceed ability of the region (country) flora to reproduce the atmospheric oxygen and to absorb the carbon dioxide. So, following the Earth animal and plant self-preservation principle, the natural organic fuel combined with the natural oxidant (atmospheric oxygen) can no more be used for further increase of energy provision in the majority of developed countries.
    Thus, the western civilization chooses its particular way: “globalization of economics” which in fact means transfer of “dirty” industries from the developed countries to the developing ones (Boldyrev 2002). Such gratuitous internalization of access to atmospheric natural resources of the developing countries is performed under the guise of investment into their economics. The USA economics is no more able to support itself by own natural resources under the atmospheric nature management in the energy sector. This statement is even more valid concerning the West Europe, which pretends not to know those facts and closes down its nuclear power plants.
    As applied to Russia, we have simulated the atmospheric nature management for different subjects of the Russian Federation.
    For example, in 2000, at the North-West Federal Region (including the Smolensk Region), about 50% of the whole energy was produced by the nuclear power plants (Smolensk, Leningrad, and Kola NPP). General balance of anthropogenic consumption and natural recovery of oxygen is nowadays positive within the North-West Region as a whole. Our present calculations, as well as the previous, were performed without account for atmospheric oxygen consumption by the region fauna. Yet, even under such approach, deficit of natural production of the atmospheric oxygen within the Leningrad Region is as high as 3.728 mln t per year.
    Under the assumption that the proportion of energy produced by thermoelectric power station should inevitably increase due to mothballing of the NPP units exhausting their resources, then, of necessity, organic fuel, mainly, coal consumption within the region should increase. Total energy production amounts to 22 bln kWh; thus, the Lenenergo transfer from nuclear to coal power should additionally demand 8.7 mln t of coal per year thus exceeding the nowaday coal consumption by 12.3 times. In such situation, deficit of atmospheric balance between the oxygen natural recovery and its anthropogenic consumption should manifold increase. And, further, total natural absorption of the anthropogenic CO₂ emissions becomes impossible.
    If Russia will ratify the Kyoto Protocol then, by the opinion of a representative of the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade, “the emission quotas will constitute the federal property. And the State will transfer the property to the business on a competitive basis. We experience strong investment shortage; the emission trade should possibly be performed against the particular investment portfolios” (Izvestiya 2002).
    Under the condition of realization of the “Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020”, the project being presented in the Russian State Duma, the carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector will exceed the same in 1990 by 1.24-1.53 times. (Whereas the Kyoto Protocol prohibits emission of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide overshoot the 1990 level for Russia as a whole).

V M Boldyrev

    As the State will not have the “emission property”, then the carbon dioxide emissions (20.3-29.5 mln t) will be paid a penalty of annual 2.03 -2.95 bln Euro for the Leningrad Region and 1.1-1.6 bln Euro for the Smolensk Region.
    The industrial energy engineering based on the photochemical transfer of water into the oxygen and hydrogen potential chemical energy will possibly solve the above problems of the atmospheric nature management. The technology of electrical energy production by oxygen and hydrogen aggregation in the so-called “fuel elements” is already worked through in laboratories. The matter is “a little”: to develop an industrial technology of photochemical water decomposition into oxygen and hydrogen. Now, such technology is not developed yet. Hence, for the power supply development, humanity has no alternative to the nuclear power.

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