НИР. Российский журнал управления проектами, 2016, №4 (17)

Содержание

МЕТОДЫ И ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ 
ПРОЕКТОМ

Боровков М.С. 
Использование теории игр для управления 
стейкхолдерами в малых проектах ..........................3

МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ 
ПОРТФЕЛЯМИ, ПРОГРАММАМИ 
И ПРОЕКТАМИ

Бархатов В.Д., Власов Д.А.
Использование сценарного планирования 
для формирования устойчивого портфеля 
нефтегазовых проектов ..............................................22

Дагаев А.А.
Управление проектами в условиях кризиса ......36

Петренко Е.Ю.
Модель формирования 
самофинансирующегося портфеля 
проектов  ............................................................................45

ПРОЕКТЫ В ОТРАСЛЯХ И ОПЫТ КОМПАНИЙ

Пономарёва Т.В., Балберина А.Б. 
Проектирование операционной IR-модели ......56

научные исс ле дования и разработки
РОССИЙСКИЙ  ЖУРНАЛ  УПРАВЛЕНИЯ  ПРОЕКТАМИ

Издается с 2012 года
№ 4(17)/2016

ISSN 2306-2649
DOI 10.12737/issn.2306-2649

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Главный редактор:
Царьков И.Н., канд. экон. наук, доцент кафедры 
управления проектами НИУ ВШЭ

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Склянкина Д.С.

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РЕДАКЦИОННЫЙ СОВЕТ 

Marek Wirkus — Ph.D., Assoсiate Professor, Gdansk 

University of Technology

Stephen Hayes — Managing Director and Chief Executive 

International Center for Complex Project Management 
(ICCPM)

Аньшин Валерий Михайлович — д-р экон. наук, про
фессор, заведующий кафедрой управления проектами НИУ ВШЭ

Владимирова Ирина Львовна — д-р экон. наук, про
фессор, заместитель заведующего кафедрой управления проектами и программами Российского 
экономического университета им. Г.В. Плеханова 
(РЭУ им. Плеханова)

Гергерт Дмитрий Владимирович — канд. экон. наук, 

доцент кафедры стратегического менеджмента 
НИУ ВШЭ (г. Пермь) 

Демкин Игорь Вячеславович — д-р экон. наук, за
меститель директора Центра анализа рисков ООО 
«НИИгазэкономика»

Ильина Ольга Николаевна — канд. техн. наук, доцент 

кафедры управления проектами НИУ ВШЭ

Колоколов Владимир Алексеевич — д-р экон. наук, 

профессор РЭУ им. Плеханова

Коссов Владимир Викторович — д-р экон. наук, 

ординарный профессор НИУ ВШЭ

Моисеева Нина Константиновна — д-р экон. наук, 

профессор, заведующий кафедрой маркетинга и 
управления проектами Национального исследовательского университета «МИЭТ» (МИЭТ) 

Фунтов Валерий Николаевич, доцент, д-р экон. наук, 

Санкт-Петербургский международный институт 
менеджмента (ИМИСП)

Цветков Александр Васильевич — д-р техн. наук, 

генеральный директор ПМСОФТ

РЕДАКЦИОННАЯ КОЛЛЕГИЯ 

Marek Wirkus — Ph.D., Associate Professor, Gdansk 

University of Technology

Stephen Hayes — Managing Director and Chief Executive 

International Center for Complex Project Management 
(ICCPM)

Аньшин Валерий Михайлович — д-р экон. наук, про
фессор НИУ ВШЭ

Владимирова Ирина Львовна — д-р экон. наук, про
фессор РЭУ им. Плеханова

Гергерт Дмитрий Владимирович — канд. экон. наук, 

доцент НИУ ВШЭ (г. Пермь) 

Дагаев Александр Александрович — канд. техн. 

наук, доцент НИУ ВШЭ

Демкин Игорь Вячеславович — д-р экон. наук, за
меститель директора Центра анализа рисков ООО 
«НИИгазэкономика»

Ильина Ольга Николаевна — канд. техн. наук, доцент 

НИУ ВШЭ

Колоколов Владимир Алексеевич — д-р экон. наук, 

профессор РЭУ им. Плеханова

Коссов Владимир Викторович — д-р экон. наук, 

ординарный профессор НИУ ВШЭ

Кузьмина Юлия Павловна — канд. экон. наук, доцент 

МИЭТ

Моисеева Нина Константиновна — д-р экон. наук, 

профессор МИЭТ

Мошкович Леонид Иосифович, канд. экон. наук, 

профессор, Сибирский федеральный университет

Фунтов Валерий Николаевич, доцент, д-р экон. наук, 

Санкт-Петербургский международный институт 
менеджмента (ИМИСП)

Яковлева Анна Юрьевна — канд. экон. наук, доцент 

НИУ ВШЭ

CONTENTS

METHODS AND INSTRUMENTS 
FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Borovkov M.S.

Game Theory Approach to Stakeholder 
Management in Small-Scaled Projects .......................3

METHODOLOGY OF PORTFOLIOS, 
PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS MANAGEMENT

Barkhatov V.D., Vlasov D.A.

Oil and Gas Project Portfolio Creating Based 
on Scenario Planning Methodology ..........................22

Dagaev A.A.

Economic Downfalls Influences on Project 
Management Development ..........................................36

Petrenko E.Yu.

Model of Self-Financing Portfolio Formation ..........45

PROJECTS IN ECONOMIC SECTORS AND 
COMPANIES EXPERIENCE

Ponomareva T.V., Balberina A.B.

Operational IR-model Design ........................................56

Использование теории игр для управления стейкхолдерами 
в малых проектах

Game Theory Approach to Stakeholder Management in Small-Scaled Projects 

DOI: 10.12737/23216                              Получено: 09 сентября 2016 г. / Одобрено: 12 октября 2016 г. / Опубликовано: 19 декабря 2016 г.

Боровков М.С.
Магистерская программа «Управление проектами: 
проектный анализ, инвестиции, технологии реализации», 
Национальный исследовательский университет 
«Высшая школа экономики» совместно с Университетом 
Ланкастера
e-mail: msborovkov@edu.hse.ru

Borovkov M.S.
MSc Project Management, Lancaster University & National 
Research University Higher School of Economics
e-mail: m.borovkov@lancaster.ac.uk

УДК 005.311.7:005.8

МЕТОДЫ И ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ПРОЕКТОМ

Методы и инструменты управления проектом

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Study background 

Today's global economy can be characterized as be
ing chaotic and competitive at the same time [32]. Modern successful organizations are constantly ready to fight 
for profit, human resources, market position and other 
temporary advantages to gain long-term benefits [4]. 
For example, Jack Welch suggests that business is all 
about winning [52]. However current business environment generates even more obstacles to achieve such goal. 
Increasing information uncertainty, continuous globalization and demanding technological progress requires 

the company to have instant reaction, smooth communication process and creative approach for making a 
decision. Project management discipline possess the 
range of various theoretical models, methods, tools and 
best practices to overcome these business hurdles and 
generate competitive advantage [46].

The next step to accomplish previously mentioned 

organizational goal seems straightforward and logical. 
Company should break down the concept of project 
management to define where is the line between successful and failed projects [39]. They are many research 
papers written on the topic of analysing project success 
outlining different criteria, factors and performance 

Аннотация
Принципы теории игр стабильно пользовались спросом как у ученых, 
занятых моделированием человеческого поведения, так и у практиков, стремящихся построить беспроигрышную стратегию в определенных ситуациях и различных областях жизнедеятельности. Мостом 
между идеями, где первые встречают вторых, можно считать проектный менеджмент, который одновременно содержит в себе множество актуальных научных проблем и способен обеспечить конкурентное 
преимущество в долгосрочной перспективе.  Однако чтобы воспользоваться достоинствами проектного управления в полной мере, стоит 
уделить особое внимание крепким взаимоотношениям с ключевыми 
стейкхолдерами. Теория игр предлагает необходимый инструментарий, которому по силам предсказывать действия заинтересованных 
сторон, а также создавать и поддерживать эффективный коммуникационный поток в организации. 
Целью научного исследования является заполнение пробела между 
возможностями применения теории игр и нынешними концептами 
проектного менеджмента, касающимися управления стейкхолдерами 
в малых проектах. Основная задача исследования и его результат - 
расширение существующего процесса управления стейкхолдерами и 
создание  модели, включающей основные принципы теории игр. Для 
достижения поставленной цели была проанализирована релевантная 
литература, проведены глубинные интервью с проектными менеджерами и сформированы три бизнес-кейса, описывающих применение 
элементов теории игр в малых проектах. Основной методологией исследования послужила этнография, а основным результатом – сформированный алгоритм настройки заинтересованных сторон под цели 
и результаты проекта.

Abstract
The principles of Game Theory and the games that emerge as a result 
are academically intriguing and can help us consider various strategies for 
interacting with the people around, especially those in the professional settings. Effective communication has always been a key to building a successful project management process. This research serves as an attempt 
to close the gap between game-theoretic way of thinking and existing project management models. In more detail, my research aims at creating a 
consistent framework for a stakeholder analysis, implementing some tactics, tools and techniques from mathematical analysis of cooperation and 
conflict. The research goal is going to be achieved by implementing the 
bounded ethnography method based on inductive approach. The results of 
the study elaborate on the possible applicability and significance of Game 
Theory in the project environment and provide project managers with a 
powerful extension of traditional stakeholder analysis. Generated Stakeholder Calibration Framework (SCF) is the final research outcome. 

Ключевые слова: управление проектами, малые проекты, теория 
игр, взаимодействие со стейкхолдерами, модели коммуникации.

Keуwords: game theory, project management, communication, stakeholders, small-scaled projects, framework, Lancaster University.

НИР. Российский журнал управления проектами  (№ 4, 2016). 68:3-21

ity. To be more specific, the games studied in each area 
of knowledge usually have similar structure, main goal 
(seeking a certain form of equilibrium) and provide 
researcher with valuable insights towards human behavior under explicit circumstances that can later be used 
for strategy forecasting [35].

Despite approval of Game Theory concepts among 

various areas of knowledge and its potential to address 
complex strategic problems, there is a small number of 
publications related to its implication in the field of 
Project Management. Recent associated articles mainly focus on applying a particular model from Game 
Theory to a very specific aspect of project planning or 
execution in a particular industry. The examples include 
designing contract agreements [23], constructing a consistent project schedule [1] or cost allocation under 
condition of uncertainty [13]. Although mentioned 
papers possess some useful and inspiring thoughts, the 
results of such studies can`t be extrapolated to more general ideas. Thus there is a necessity to classify and systematize the existing scientific experience in the sphere 
of game theory application in project management. 

Another important reason to conduct this study is 

that a typical project is rich with uncertainty related to 
the unique result and involves dealing with high level of 
complexity described by quantity & interactions between 
various management factors [37]. Game Theory approach 
is able to guide a project manager through uncertainty 
by predicting most possible outcomes and support him 
in choosing best case scenario under certain circumstances [45]. To specify, most of well-known interactions 
presented in Game Theory such as prisoner’s dilemma, 
chicken game or stag hunt can be extended to suit communicational conflicts, stakeholder management or risk 
analysis. 

The overall purpose of this research is to identify and 

analyze potential benefits of Game Theory aspects which 
may be applied to deal with different project management issues. The special attention will be paid to linking 
Game Theory with managing various stakeholder requirements in small-scaled projects where cooperation 
and conflict situations play a vital role in delivering 
planned products or services. The investigation is aimed 
to fill the gap between practical application of Game 
Theory techniques and project management theoretical 
concepts. 

1.2. The professional significance of the study 

The study explores how project managers perceive 

interaction with key stakeholders and advices what can 

correlation [21]. Nevertheless, the majority of authors 
agree that stakeholder satisfaction is the critical part of 
any prosperous investment alternative. This element 
generally involves dealing with people: negotiating with 
various interested parties and providing a solution that 
will keep the project moving forward [17]. 

A typical procedure of interaction with stakeholders 

during the majority of projects usually starts from realizing a simple idea — each interested party requests the 
unique set of benefits based mostly on their personal 
goals [14]. In a worst case scenario, a key stakeholder 
can miss personal objective, begin worrying and finally 
influence project results to compensate his expected loss 
[49]. Therefore, project manager should pay extreme 
attention on planning their own strategy in response to 
prevent the stakeholder’s possible detrimental actions 
or to maximize the project benefits. In other words, 
project manager has to simulate potential conflict or 
perspective cooperation by building a consistent communication process. 

This idea is also true for project teams, which are 

usually cross-functional, gathered from people who 
never worked before and also have personal goals. Such 
environment can become a source of future disagreements on task allocation, communication flow and preferred work pace [10]. As a result, certain team members 
may decrease their efforts, ignore project meetings or 
constantly conflict with others. Thus project manager’s 
responsibility is to turn independent workgroup into a 
motivated high-performing organism [18]. 

Both situations mentioned above have a number of 

common traits: strategic context, lots of persons acting 
within individual interests, basic assumptions and possible impacts of their behavior on project performance. 
Game Theory as a separate branch of mathematics uses 
the similar structure to observe, understand and find an 
optimal solution to the cases based on decision-maker’s 
interaction [35]. The survey of mathematical models of 
cooperation and conflict among rational decision makers was firstly conducted more than 60 years ago to solve 
prisoner`s dilemma [33]. Many famous scientists including John Nash and Oskar Morgenstern [31] advanced 
the concept of Game Theory by introducing a set of 
criteria for understanding and predicting players` strategies under various circumstances. Since then Game 
Theory approach has been thoroughly applied to study 
human behavior in different spheres such as business, 
political science, biology, logic, psychology, computer 
science, philosophy and poker [26]. The reason for such 
diverse popularity can be clearly described as universal

be done to maximize benefits from it. The investigation 
will be of primary value for project managers, as well as 
functional managers and scientists struggling with uncertainty in constructing reliable game theory models 
in different disciplines. Project and functional managers 
may similarly apply the results of this research to solve 
the frequent resource allocation problem that occurs in 
matrix organization structure [44]. Professional researchers can also benefit from the bounded ethnography 
method implemented to shape the final framework. 
Another possible benefit of this study touches upon the 
various insights generated during the qualitative research 
that can be extrapolated to similar project situations. 

1.3. Research scope and questions

To sharpen the research focus on understanding how 

certain Game Theory concepts may be utilized in the 
field of project management we have to answer the following questions:

1. Why game theory is one of the valid tools to suc
cessfully manage communicational risks, solve conflicts 
or help to build active stakeholder engagement in a smallscaled projects?

First research question will mainly be focused on 

providing general information towards Game Theory 
applicability in project management. Achieving this goal 
might be connected with certain difficulties. To be more 
specific, game theory utilization can provide a field for 
various manipulations in projects. For instance, applying such tool as payoff matrix to explain, evaluate and 
predict stakeholder behavior can lead to oversimplification that will mean not taking into account certain 
variables and result into incomplete analysis. Furthermore, 
a simple well-grounded intention to obtain more information before choosing an optimal strategy may cause 
some ethical issues. By this I mean that data confidentiality could be one of the project requirements and 
create an obstacle before finding an optimal solution. 
In addition, project risks tend to evolve and cause correlated risks which change initial assumptions and affect 
the equilibrium. Therefore, it is essential to choose 
adequate research methods, determine correct sample 
size and select appropriate participants. 

Despite the fact that the first research question is 

closed ended, finding answers procedure should be aimed 
at getting more detailed data for various aspects of project management. Achieving this goal will prepare the 
set of interrelated variables for further analysis. 

2. How Game Theory aspects are implemented in 

small-scaled projects and what general assumptions should 

be made prior to applying mathematical analysis of cooperation and conflict in project management?

In this section of study, I will mostly concentrate on 

some specific situations that usually happen during project completion and have a relation to Game Theory. 
Main goal of the second research question is to generate 
an answer towards how exactly can specific ideas from 
Game Theory support the achieving of project goals, 
improve manager`s soft skills in terms of developing 
mutually beneficial relationships with stakeholders and 
advance planning process? The objectives are going to 
consist of providing a clear description of relevant situations, conducting a thorough analysis and identifying 
their impact on project outcomes. The results from this 
part of the research will also solve application problems 
stated in the previous research question. 

3. What are the recommendations for further applica
tion of Game Theory concepts in small-scaled projects? 

According to the results of the second research ques
tion we already produced the list of game theory models 
and theoretical aspects that have an impact in project 
management environment. The next goal is to define 
the most efficient way to apply this aspect in project 
management general areas of knowledge. Thus the objective for this research part should be to build a consistent framework of Game Theory application using the 
data from first and second research questions. 

Answering research questions stated above will allow us 

to get a general overview of various Game Theory models, 
analyze possible benefits from their integration in project 
management and especially stakeholder area of knowledge, 
provide the necessary guidelines for application and structure generated ideas for further practical use. 

The structure of the following research is going to 

support achieving the initial research goal. The study 
will utilize the works of many classical and famous Game 
Theory scientists including Ariel Rubinstein [35], Oskar 
Morgenstern [31], Roger Bruce Myerson [33] as well as 
surveys from various project management researchers 
and experts such as Harvey Maylor [30], Dennis Lock 
[24] and Rodney Turner [47]. In addition, the research 
is going to extract necessary information from Project 
Management Body of Knowledge (PMBoK) standard 
[38], the second version of Projects in Controlled Environments (PRINCE2) methodology [27] and a specific review paper on how to use PRINCE2 in small-scaled 
projects approved by PRINCE2 authors [11]. Furthermore, 
multiple reports from different project management 
conferences will be addressed and examined to create 
the consistent framework. 

Методы и инструменты управления проектом

CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. Basic sources 

In my research I will use Project Management Body 

of Knowledge (PMBoK) definition of a project and 
project management [38]:

“A project is a temporary endeavour, undertaken to 

create unique product, service or result”.

“A project management is the application of knowledge, 

skills, tools and techniques applied to project activities to 
meet the project requirements”. 

There are several reasons to choose PMBoK as a 

theoretic fundament for the further study. Firstly, stated 
above definitions outline project uncertainty in fast paced 
business environment by taking into the account such 
characteristics as uniqueness and transiency. Project 
managers frequently try their best to reduce or avoid the 
uncertainty [37]. Game Theory possess all necessary 
elements to structure, evaluate and offer clear guidelines 
in complex or ambiguous situations [41]. Secondly, 
provided concepts refer to understanding project as a 
mean to introduce change in a company. Mathematical 
analysis of cooperation and conflict under rational decision makers was also firstly introduced to implement 
strategic changes and predicting companies’ behavior 
in business environment [9]. Thirdly, PMBoK standard 
pays a lot of attention to cooperation aspect (for example, utilizing organizational breakdown structure for a 
specific project team or organizing the communication 
flow process) among stakeholders with logical reasoning 
(for example, task allocation process which is often based 
on competences, knowledge and skills) which are crucial 
parts for assembling Game Theory models. 

Apart from fundamental project definition, the research 

is going to take into account the traditional way of evaluating various stakeholders illustrated in PMBoK as well. 
I will mainly focus on the identification procedure that 
usually involves implementing a thorough analysis of 
people affected by or interested in the project This should 
be followed by demonstrating the links between existing 
stakeholder analysis and Game Theory principles. 

The small-scaled projects are usually characterized 

by such factors as [11]:
• short term duration;
• simple and well defined project scope with stable 

dependencies between activities;

• low person working hours;
• fit for purpose in terms of quality;
• small project team size;
• low risk with possible modest changes;

• clearly defined benefits extracted directly from de
liverables. 
The Game Theory topic will be introduced by the books 

of Antony Kelly: “Decision Making using Game Theory” 
[20] and Ariel Rubinstein: “A Course in Game Theory” 
[35]. One of the main reasons to choose two stated authors 
is that they both take into account the concept of bounded rationality and provide many examples which can be 
extended to project management cases. The majority of 
definitions and guidelines will be transferred from these 
sources. The further research will use fundamental game 
theory concepts such as Nash equilibrium, dominant strategies, sequential equilibrium, credible threat & trust, signal 
tactic & focal points. The special attention is going to be 
paid to so-called classical games involving both cooperative 
& competitive types with perfect or imperfect information. 
By this I mean prisoner`s dilemma, chicken game, cutting 
cake situation and ultimatum game. 

According to Ariel Rubinstein [35] Game Theory is 

a set of analytical tools designed for studying strategic, 
rational decision making processes of individuals who 
interact in a specific environment. This discipline was 
initially developed to predict situations where one of the 
players performs better at another expense. 

The models or the games are abstract representations 

of real situations and have the following structure:
• formal system built on specific rules;
• the players that interact with each other; 
• variable and clear outcomes or pay-offs as a result of 

interaction; 

• outcomes possesses a different value;
• the players are emotionally involved and have an 

impact on the outcomes through their actions; 

• outcomes depend on the behavior of each player. 

From the game theoretic norms revealed above it can 

be clearly seen that small scaled projects are much easier for representation of the real situations. In more 
detail, I mean that medium or large scaled projects 
usually involve more interaction between key players 
and can even produce the set of interrelated games because of longer duration, complex scope and lots of 
projects changes. Therefore, Game-Theory modeling 
process for the small scaled projects can be done in the 
brightest way to outline every significant detail and focus 
on the possible implications. 

2.2. General application of Game Theory in project 
management 

Project management is a very demanding role because 

it combines characteristics from authority, responsibil
НИР. Российский журнал управления проектами  (№ 4, 2016). 68:3-21

for each player taking into consideration opponent`s 
decision. Prisoner`s dilemma and Chicken game were 
used to create probabilistic conflicts and generate a possible Nash equilibrium. This article is quite useful in 
terms of analyzing the possible game theory integration 
into classical construction projects. In addition, it shows 
how important is cooperation to achieve best outcome. 
The paper written by Merce Mach and Yehuda Baruch 
[25] extends the topic of conflict and cooperation to the 
field of project teams. Authors aim to examine how 
collective orientation, faultiness and level of trust affect 
team performance in cross cultural context. The research 
found out that trust operates as a facilitator for work 
attitude, various perceptions and the outcome. Nevertheless, some of the studied team members consider 
trustworthiness to be dangerous in the beginning of the 
project where everyone is trying to achieve personal 
goals. The relationship between this important concept 
and performance tends to be not linear and complex 
[55]. Article also outlines that cooperative atmosphere 
does not decrease the probability of potential conflicts 
but still has a positive impact on project results. 

Describing existing papers related to the specific 

aspects of project management, it is essential to demonstrate that many scientists examine traditional coalition games connected with delay cost problems to decide 
the fair share for each player who affected project delay 
to come up with more accurate schedule [16; 13]. Mentioned papers analyse situations in which a project consisting of several activities is not executed according to 
plan. Main attention is focused on how to divide the 
total reward (penalty) among the allocated activities: 
the core of a corresponding cooperative project game 
determines a list of stable distributions of the final reward. 
Authors present scheduling problems as abstract experiments where coalition game principles may later be 
applied. 

More useful bits of game theory implication can be 

extracted from typical information distribution problems 
which usually take place while implementing mathematical models of cooperation and conflict. Three articles here present a particular interest. First paper written by Rouven Bergmann [5] concentrates on dealing 
with moral hazard in innovative projects. Author describes 
a situation where a risk-averse research and development 
managers are introduced to an incentive contract. Article concludes that incentives built on the organization 
market value have to be stronger in an environment with 
weak information asymmetry. Thus in smaller companies 
risk-averse project managers should be paid compensa
ity and accountability at the same time [32]. Furthermore, 
usual activities for a typical project manager mostly 
involve negotiating with stakeholders to keep the execution process smooth and to meet initial expectations. 
Game theory is able to teach managers what will be the 
right time to apply their huge mix of soft & hard skills 
and how to control stakeholder`s requirements better. 
There are also a number of studies related to game theory applicability in terms of stakeholder engagement 
and communicational issues. Some authors conclude 
that the implication of game theory allows understanding the requirements and interests of involved persons 
to close the project more successfully [7] while others 
state that in most cases game theory oversimplifies the 
relationships between project team and key stakeholders 
[54]. However project practitioners agree that applying 
game theory approach to every stakeholder should transform your vision and make notice more details that may 
become later valuable on the next stages [45]. Moreover, 
it is crucial to identify the type of game project manager is playing with an interested party because this helps 
to generate adequate response strategy. For instance, in 
a zero-sum game where a player claims benefits at the 
equal losses of others the mixed strategy is going to 
produce maximum result. Taking this idea into consideration project manager may predict the behavior of 
conflicting stakeholders. Thus he can develop a more 
consistent and reliable mapping process of interested 
parties. Another valuable experience of implementing 
Game Theory can be found in the paper written by 
Aleksandra Odrowska [34]. Author compares project 
team’s interaction to the behavior of online gamers who 
create guilds for receiving more benefits. Article explores 
how theory related to individual communications in 
well-defined contexts (similar to games) can describe 
and explain collective behaviour. Author provides support for this theoretical method with an examination of 
data collected as part of an ethnographic research, through 
several focus groups, and a survey sent to 333 World of 
Warcraft players. Paper concludes with a discussion 
towards the similarities between online guilds and project teams. Research also provides a list of guidelines for 
predicting collective outcomes in certain types of online 
games.

Approach that is more precise was taken by Azin 

Shakiba Barough, Mojtaba Valinejad Shoubi and Moohammad Javad Emami Skardi [2]. Authors concerted 
on conflicts between various parties involved in construction projects. They demonstrated the need for better 
decision making method which aims at the best outcome 

Методы и инструменты управления проектом

tion based more on project financial performance than 
on efficiency objectives. Another important point is that 
short-term economic motivation tends to decrease the 
probability of morale hazard in highly dynamic markets. 
Second article touched upon a similar idea is Zhanna 
Belyaeva and Alexander Kazakov`s research [3] on building a CSR model of stakeholder interaction in Russia 
and China. Authors point out usual issues affecting the 
Nash equilibrium in most games such as adverse selecting and information asymmetry. Article demonstrates 
how these problems will change pure strategies and what 
should be done by government institutions to move to 
win-win situation. In terms of project control it shows 
the importance of top management in organization and 
possible scenario caused by game theory issues. Third 
research conducted by Robin Mason and Juuso Valimaki [29] aims at analysing the efforts of principal (organization) and agent (project manager) under contract 
agreements with and without commitment. The investigation is built on assumption that there is a constant 
information asymmetry between project manager and a 
company initiating a project. Both parties have special 
tactics to influence the project results: agent is able to 
decrease his efforts while principal can provide more 
incentives. Due to Parkinson`s Law [36] project manager tends to reduce his current effort substituting towards 
future attempts before project completion. Organization 
notices that and similarly lowers the payment. To resolve 
this issue, authors propose a continuous time model that 
focuses on the project results and the level of commitment of principal and agent. In other words, the research 
is trying to solve the classic Game Theory problem when 
players utilize information asymmetry to their advantage 
by implementing dominant strategies. This usually leads 
to non-optimal equilibrium that will be mutually detrimental if the game repeats. To prevent this dynamic 
incentives structure was developed. Described papers 
clearly shows how the balance between payoffs can be 
restored and kept. 

Despite that Game Theory is able to reduce project 

uncertainty by deconstructing it to abstract elements 
and providing clear instructions on what strategy to 
implement in the complex situation [41] there is still an 
assumption of complete rationality for the decisionmakers [35]. As it was said before project environment 
is rich with information asymmetry and limited with 
time to choose a right strategy. Therefore, Game Theory has a concept of bounded rationality where decision 
makers are looking for at least satisfactory choice rather than the most optimal one [20]. Project stakeholders 

mainly choose different strategies taking into account 
corresponded risks and potential involved benefits [32]. 
However, they do not possess the complete information, 
have personal preferences and lack the necessary amount 
of time to select the best case scenario. Thus there is 
more and more studies linked to implementing evolutionary Game Theory with bounded rationality and 
possible stakeholder behaviour [50]. Such researches 
are aimed at constructing a benefit maximisation function including risks and allocated resources from the 
point of incomplete rationality. Authors also assume 
that implementing such benefit maximization model 
can make stakeholders and project manager act more 
rational.

2.3. Game Theory concepts & stakeholder 
management 

As it was mentioned before, in the field of project 

management Game Theory still remains at the starting 
point of its practical application. However, several studies outline the importance of game theoretical patterns 
at different types and sizes of projects. One of the examples is the article written about implementing cooperative guidelines as a creative method for managing 
communication risks by Katerina Bockova, Gabriella 
Slavikova and Juraj Gabrhel [8]. Article considers Game 
Theory as a tool to establish and plan the project to be 
the game that gives an opportunity to maximize gains 
and minimize losses. According to the authors opinion 
decision process based on Game Theory concepts is not 
only about personal knowledge and strategies but more 
significantly about those of others in the project to achieve 
success. Therefore, applying such instrument to every 
project stakeholder should help to see things in a new 
way. The paper has a particular interest for the examination because authors try to find evidences to Bilton and 
Cumming`s hypothesis [6] — “the use of Game Theory 
makes it possible to understand the needs and interests 
of the involved persons in a better way and to finalize 
the project successfully”. As a result, from a literature 
review and structured interviews with project managers 
in Czech Republic article proposes a list of steps towards 
how to utilize Game Theory on a daily basis to evaluate 
the others person strategy and improve negotiation process to keep project on track. Unfortunately, research 
outcomes are very general and mostly include questions 
which should be considered prior to any important project communication including: 
• What does the person involved in the communication 

gain or lose? Is there a time limit to make decision? 

НИР. Российский журнал управления проектами  (№ 4, 2016). 68:3-21

• Would it be in our best interest to share details prior 

to the negotiation if the game is cooperative? 

• Is it to the mutual advantage to determine the nature 

of negotiating process? Should it be simultaneous or 
sequential? 

• What are the mutual and achievable objectives for 

cooperative, and non-cooperative games, what are 
the aims of the stakeholder project manager is negotiating 
with? 

• Is the person able to commit on the behalf of only 

himself or others involved? 

• What are the potential risk areas of chosen strategy 

or selected communicational approach? How can 
stakeholders use unique information about project 
to get the advantage?
Moreover, author do not specify what should be done 

with received information and how it can be integrated 
later in the stakeholder analysis. Despite mentioned 
downsides the research is able to supplement and advance 
the existing stakeholder analysis procedure that is implemented by the majority of project managers.

According to the PMBoK [38], stakeholder manage
ment process for any project includes four main stages 
(Fig. 1) — identification, planning, managing engagement and controlling.

The identification stage and the process of stake
holder analysis, in particular, presents the most interest 
for the further discussion. During the first stage the 
project manager usually recognizes people, groups and 
organizations that could impact or be affected by an 
activity, decision or specific project results. This is frequently followed by gathering and scrutinizing relevant 
information regarding stakeholder`s interests, influence, 
interdependencies and possible impact on project success. Conducting such stakeholder examination has a 
goal to prepare a solid fundament for further prioritizing 
and planning engagement actions. 

If we take a closer look on the process of stakehold
er analysis, mentioned in the PMBoK, we may notice 
lots of similarities with the core elements of Game 
Theory [35]:
• formal system built on specific rules — assessment 

of various stakeholders based on expert judgment and 
decision-making principles; 

• the players that interact with each other — inter
dependencies between key stakeholders;

• variable and clear outcomes or pay-offs as a result of 

interaction — multiple classification models including 
power/interest, influence/impact and power/influence 
grid; 

• the players are emotionally involved and have an 

impact on the outcomes through their actions — 
attempt to prioritize stakeholders that relates to their 
involvement in the project.
Apart from described elements, the main bridging 

principle is the way how PMBoK [38] assesses key stakeholders at the end of the analysis process. According to 
the chosen standard, a substantial amount of attention 
should be paid to possible reactions of interested parties 
under different circumstances in order to «enhance support and mitigate potential negative impacts». This is a 
very good illustration of Game Theory historic objective 
to predict the behavior of the other player [20]. Regarding the stage of stakeholder identification, PMBoK 
clearly tries to construct a game between project manager and interested parties. Nevertheless, there will still 
be a methodological issue — Project Management Body 
of Knowledge deals with stakeholders as «objects» when 
they are more like «subjects» [48] In fact, many project 
management methodologies and standards take into 
account only frivolous interests of involved stakeholders, 

Fig. 1. Project Stakeholder Management Overview (PMBoK)

Методы и инструменты управления проектом

caring less about potential values and benefits that might 
be achieved through specific interaction. 

CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGY

3.1. Research approach 

Research methodology is a comprehensive strategy 

which choice should be based upon the type and features 
of the research problem [53]. In this section I am going 
to outline the overall logic of further study, define appropriate methods, link them with stated research questions and proceed with investigation objectives.

My research aims at studying of possible game the
ory application in the field of project management in 
terms of solving communicational conflicts and improving stakeholder engagement related to small project 
teams. To specify, the goal of the research is to construct 
a consistent framework on how to maximise benefits 
from implementing Game Theory in small-scaled projects. In other words, the research deliverable will be a 
general model or a new piece of theory that is based on 
in-depth study of particular events. According to Louis 
Cohen [12] ethnographic approach to the research is 
suitable for analyzing perception based data and is able 
to generate original theoretical concepts. Ethnographic 
approach seems also a decent option if not large sample 
of data is available to the researcher. Ethnographers 
perceive human behavior as socially situated and unique 
which connects with the variety of games played by 
people executing the project. 

More reasons to pick this type of research approach 

can be found in the book by Harvey Maylor and Kate 
Blackmon [30]. Authors state that before conducting a 
study you have to carefully examine previously identified 
investigation questions. Research questions for this research (Chapter 1, Section 3) are mainly focused on 
identifying the meaning of the problem and not the 
measurement. It can be noticed that all of them begin 
with how, what and why while typical scientific approach 
utilizes words like how much. Moreover, developing a 
new piece of theory corresponds with subjective nature 
of the study that contradicts the scientific method [22]. 
Another thing worth mentioning is that implementing 
the inductive approach when a researcher starts from a 
specific situation and continues working towards universal principle. In other words, such approach makes 
it much easier to construct a framework [30]. Taking all 
mentioned reasons into account I have decided to choose 
bounded ethnography approach that combines a reasonable level of depth with a flexibility in terms of time
limited projects. Topic of this study implies deeper understanding of game theory elements buried beneath 
project management rules and guidelines. To specify, on 
the first stage we have to look for common patterns and 
then recognize general principles of game theory in 
project management. This may look similar to scientific approach that concentrates on finding similarities 
and involves careful and accurate data analysis [30]. 
However, this information will not be enough to construct 
a consistent framework for various reasons. Firstly, literature review can produce only general ideas that should 
be shaped and narrowed to the specific area of knowledge. 
Secondly, such insights are not able to advance the research topic further. Therefore, the study will implement 
more investigation tools. 

Ethnography usually implements qualitative methods 

as they are considered to have required level of depth to 
understand the meaning of one particular situation or 
event [12]. Qualitative data is also easier for categorization, having in mind the picture of the final framework. 
Therefore, the research should start from a literature 
review. Then it has to be followed by a specific situation 
that will be later broken down tested and evaluated from 
a point of common patterns identified earlier from a 
literature review. This can be done by in-depth interviews 
and content – analysis of the project documentation. 
Further synthesis should outline the efficiency of game 
theory application and identify the possible way to develop a framework. 

3.2. Methodology design

To fulfill the purpose of the research, succeed in 

implementing research approach and answer research 
questions stated above following research design is going 
to be implemented (Fig. 2). The main purpose of the 
following structure is to demonstrate how ethnographic approach can result into creating a new part of the-
ory. In more detail, the process is going to start from 
deduction, combining valuable insights from literature 
review, and continue with induction, working through 
singular insights towards general principles produced 
from Content-Analysis and In-Depth Interviews. Final 
framework is going to be the final research outcome. 

This structure can be outlined in the four main stag
es below:
1. Data preparation. This stage involves doing critical 

analysis of literature towards Game Theory concepts 
in various areas of project management. The results 
will help to reveal two things. Firstly, our research 
will generate reasons for implementing game theory 

НИР. Российский журнал управления проектами  (№ 4, 2016). 68:3-21

concepts in the field of project management. Secondly, the common patterns of game theory application in the vast body of literature are going to be 
presented. 

2. Data gathering. On the second stage it is necessary 

collect a substantial amount of information for further 
examination. This involves conducting in-depth semi 
structured interviews with project managers operating in small-scaled projects towards their use of game 
theory elements and analysis of project documentation. Interviews are going to testify the necessity of 
game theory concepts in small-scaled project oriented environment. Project documentation content 
analysis will generate a certain number of situations 
where Game Theory could have been used and what 
might be the possible effect on the project outcomes. 

3. Data analysis. Third stage has an aim to prepare a 

fundament for a later developed framework. Cases 
based on three small-scaled projects are going to 
outline the common principles revealed after literature review, demonstrate the insights generated by 
interviews and provide further implications for a 
similar situation. 

4. Results presentation. Fourth stage is focused on syn
thesis of above mentioned results into a consistent 
framework that can be used later in the small-scaled 
projects. This should be done by integrating outcomes 
from thorough literature review, semi-structured 
interviews and content analysis from actual projects.

3.3. Methodology issues 

After presenting the general research design it is 

necessary to provide more details towards particular 
methods which will be used later. 

In-Depth interviews are defined as a qualitative re
search technique that frequently involves carrying out 

intensive individual interrogations with a small number 
of participants to explore their opinion on a particular 
topic or situation [56]. Since the research goal is to 
construct a consistent framework that requires detailed 
information towards project managers’ behavior under 
different circumstances, In-Depth interviews seem as 
the most natural approach to achieve this goal. In addition, interviewees are going to provide a more complete 
picture of what problems happen during executing smallscaled projects and why.

Respondents. Interviews usually start from sampling. 

“Appropriate sample size for a qualitative study is one 
that adequately answers the research question” [28]. The 
sample will consist of 9 students from Lancaster MSc 
Project Management and 3 employees from Q2Q Ltd 
IT company located in the same town. Interviewees were 
selected mainly because respondents are usually busy 
executing the small-scaled projects in multiple industries. 
To be more specific, MSc Project Management in Lancaster University suggests executing 3 small-scaled projects and completing PRINCE2 Foundation certification 
at minimum. At the same time, Q2Q Ltd usually delivers projects for small and medium sized enterprises 
(SMEs) where communicational aspect, short-term 
duration, fir for purpose and clearly defined benefits are 
the core aspects. 

The questions were chosen according to the results 

of literature review. Each question represents the certain 
section in Game Theory application and is designed to 
generate more specific response. The whole interview 
consisted of six questions outlining topics identified on 
the data preparation stage. 

Data validity for the interviews in this research is 

based on:
• personal acquaintance with interviewees. By this I 

mean the high level of mental comfort and constructive context of answers;

• professional acquaintance with project manage
ment procedures, working conditions of the organization; 

• interviewee wish to implement some the results of 

the research in enhancing current procedure of stakeholder analysis. 
All interviews were recorded, transcribed and analyzed 

to fit the purpose of the research. 

Qualitative Content analysis suggests implementing 

a bundle of techniques for systematic text examination 
[30]. While literature review provided necessary research 
frames and In-Depth interviews guaranteed the appropriate content, Project documentation content analysis 

Fig. 2. Methodology design

Методы и инструменты управления проектом

is going to set the essential environment to produce a 
final framework. 

Documentation for the analysis will be based on term 1, 

term 2 and term 3 projects where I worked during completing MSc in Lancaster. The main reason is that all 
three projects were small-scaled and I had full access to 
observe and examine the documentation referred to 
planning and execution project phases. On the third 
stage specific situations will be extracted and carefully 
analyzed. To maintain this approach 3 case studies are 
going to be created. Each case study will be precisely structured to reflect the real situation from term 1, term 2 and 
term 3 small-scaled projects completed in Lancaster. 

It is also worth mentioning that methodology described 

above requires the compliance of the research ethics 
norms. I can confirm that in this study I will observe 
and maintain ethical standards set by Lancaster University and National Research University Higher School 
of Economics. Full confidentiality of the participants 
will be guaranteed and all the primary data and research 
documents are going to be secured for a proper period 
of time.

CHAPTER 4. ANALYSIS, FINDINGS AND 
INTERPRETATIONS

4.1. Literature review summary

According to proposed earlier methodological design, 

before carrying out semi-structured interviews it is 
necessary to prepare data. Firstly, this stage helps to 
organise a consistent fundament for developing further 
interview questions. Secondly it provides a necessary 
direction towards creating a final integration framework. 
In this section of the research I will summarise common patterns of the majority of literature sources relevant to Game Theory application in the field of project management. 

To address the first research question we have to 

outline the topic of Game Theory definition in the eyes 
of project managers. Through the qualitative studies 
conducted by Katerina Bockova [7], Gabriella Slavikova [8], San Cristobal [43] and books written by Chris 
Bilton [6] & Michael Hatfield [25] it is obvious that 
project managers implement various concepts from 
Game Theory but call it differently. It is also worth 
mentioning that stakeholder analysis described in PMBoK [38] takes many core elements of Game Theory 
and attempts to simulate it through picking right engagement strategies in response. Therefore, gathering 
all shared opinions to produce a universal meaning for 

mathematical analysis of conflict and cooperation seems 
as a reasonable idea. 

Another vast number of literature sources touch 

upon the topic of Game Theory applicability for specific purposes of project management [1; 54]. By this I 
mean that authors focus on detailed implementation 
of single aspect from Game Theory for a certain project 
management problem. Articles involve scheduling issues, stakeholder engagement, risk analysis and relationships within a project team. The further interviews 
are going to support or refute an argument of game 
theory applicability in the specific project management 
areas of knowledge. 

Ways to manage team commitment through trust or 

threats and resolve possible conflicts are also common 
themes for scientific investigations. Many authors [55; 
2; 25] focus on studying how generated trust in cross 
functional and cross national team affects the performance. Researches demonstrate that trust is not always 
perceived equally good by all project team members but 
is very efficient in terms of overcoming personal disagreements. It will be valuable in terms of answering the 
second research question to examine project manager’s 
perception of a threat & trust concepts and its possible 
application when facing a disagreement. 

Moral hazard and information asymmetry was one 

more topic which is widely spread in the current literature 
corresponding with game theory application in project 
management [5; 3; 29]. The common point of these 
studies is that key stakeholders or project manager itself 
usually has more knowledge, skills and information to 
take actions in their advantage. As the result both players 
tend to end up not with an optimal equilibrium. According to the articles in this section the equilibrium should 
be forced by dynamic incentives or government intuitions. 
Small-scaled projects extremely depend on communication with stakeholders. Another interesting idea from 
these sources is to receive stakeholder feedback about his 
own actions to assess possible threat. Thus, project managers will be able to present a vast number of ideas of 
how to deal with moral hazard [11]. 

Bounded rationality concept tends to be one of the 

promising areas for further integration of project management models with game theoretic way of thinking. 
Taking into account the results from related articles [50] 
and the context of the second & third research question 
it should be beneficial to examine the perception of 
rationality in small-scaled projects. The questions may 
reveal the approach and relationship to this Game Theory assumption in a small-scaled project. 

НИР. Российский журнал управления проектами  (№ 4, 2016). 68:3-21